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Highly Impressive Viewing: Food Shortage Explained - It's About To Get Real (youtube.com)
Why the 2022 global food shortage is going to get worse
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THERE'S A FOOD SHORTAGE:
There’s a food shortage and the bad news is it’s going to be even worse than we originally thought. Since we started keeping track of food prices with the global food price index - we have now reached the highest level that food has ever been (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PF...)

A WARNING FROM THE UNITED NATIONS:
The United Nations food chief is warning that the war in Ukraine has created “a catastrophe on top of a catastrophe” and will have a global impact “beyond anything we’ve seen since World War II.” (https://abcn.ws/3MYF74c)

IS THE FOOD SHORTAGE BECAUSE OF THE GOVERNMENT?
There's rumors that the food shortage was purposely engineered by the government. There have been reports of suspicious fires and industrial accidents like the one that happened to a Walmart Distribution Center in March, there was one in Oregon at a potato chip plant in February, over a dozen reports of warehouses, and processing plants have recently caught fire. This looks bad.

LET'S LOOK AT THE FACTS:
According to the National Fire Protection Agency the US has had more than 5,000 fires at manufacturing and processing plants per year between 2015 and 2019. So far in the first 4 months of 2022 - we have had roughly 20 fires to US food plants which compared to our annual average is not out of the ordinary. If anything what we’re actually seeing is frequency bias.

BAADER-MEINHOF PHENOMENA:
This is when we learn about something new we didn’t know about before, and then all of the sudden, we start seeing it everywhere so we perceive it as happening more than it has before. This is a real thing that happens to us partially because of selective attention bias - so much happens to us our entire day, we can’t pay attention to all of it - but when we choose to focus on a specific thing - we notice it more.

5 REAL REASONS WHY FOOD IS BECOMING MORE EXPENSIVE:

REASON 1.
The first reason is the Russian invasion into Ukraine. Roughly 25 percent of all the wheat exports in the world comes from just two countries - Russia and Ukraine, about 20 percent of all the corn exports in the world comes from Russia and Ukraine as well as 90 percent of all the sunflower cooking oil.

It’s estimated that both Russia and Ukraine alone provide something like 12% of the world’s calories we take in - which is just insane. Last year Ukraine’s agricultural exports were 27 billion dollars, and Russia’s was 37.3 billion so they are both massive players in the field of global agriculture.

REASON 2.
There’s a global shortage of fertilizer - specifically the chemicals used to make it like anhydrous ammonia which has now reached an all time high (https://bit.ly/3ypQGgJ) To make things worse, the Russian Ministry of defense has suspended the export of fertilizer.

REASON 3:
India is going through a massive heat wave which is having devastating effects on wheat. In fact this year - India recorded the highest March temperature in the last 122 years which is estimated to lower their wheat output anywhere between 6 to 10% this year.

REASON 4:
Countries are restricting the exports on their food so they can have more food for themselves at home. Ever since the Russian invasion, the amount of trade policies on food restrictions around the world has tripled (https://bit.ly/3N1rpgT)

REASON 5 & 6:
Cost of gas which universally affects anything and everything that requires transportation and of course supply chain issues like Shanghai’s new lockdowns and everything being stuck at the ports.

HOW WILL THIS AFFECT US LATER THIS YEAR?
Watch the video to find out!

SOURCES:
https://bit.ly/3KZPL9B
https://bit.ly/3vWpg0b
https://bit.ly/3N1rpgT
https://abcn.ws/3MYF74c
https://fxn.ws/3sqDnZM
https://bit.ly/393opSw

*None of this is meant to be construed as investment advice, it's for entertainment purposes only. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
    • 1
    Francisco Gimeno - BC Analyst Bad news sell more than good news, so every time we hear bad news we tend to think it can't be so bad. But our perception (selective attention bias, scientists say) is making us to pay attention to the possibility of food shortages in the way. Prices, Ukraine war (wheat, corn and sunflower shortage), India not exporting cereal due to the heatwave, Belarus not exporting phosphates which are crucial for making fertilisers, and less fertilisers means less crops, less crops is less food. Supply chains and transport logistics slow and even broken.... well the global commerce is being transformed, global economy suffering high inflation and, depending on what happens, recession or, according to this podcast, stagflation. Are we pessimistic? We are living yet in a world where our ancestors would marvel of all development. And if anything we humans thrive is in to be resilient and survive. All warnings are just signals, conversations in society. As individual or local communities, let's prepare for the worst, while continuing to work for the best. Remain informed and aware of your local, national and global environment.