Research and reports
- by Pilar Villegas
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A version of this post was originally published at thebarefootvc.
The price of bitcoin reached $10,000 on Tuesday. This just in: Make that $11,000. Over the years, I have seen a significant change in conversations around virtual currencies, from “It’s for drug dealers!” “There’s no underlying asset!” and “It’s a fraud!” to “How do I buy bitcoin?” and “Can you help me look at this ICO?” And we are no doubt at the cusp of more widespread acceptance of the concept.
It’s important to note that a fair amount of the recent capital in the market is driven by speculation from the astronomical returns that cryptocurrencies have achieved in 2017, and a “fear of missing out.”
Over the years, I have seen a significant change in conversations around virtual currencies, from “It’s for drug dealers!” “There’s no underlying asset!” and “It’s a fraud!” to “How do I buy bitcoin?” and “Can you help me look at this ICO?”
True alpha returns have been difficult to achieve in the globally low interest-rate environment and softening of many real estate markets, all factors that have been fuel for cryptocurrency market cap growth.
Many of these investors have not experienced the price volatility that many earlier investors have, and it remains to be seen how a significant shock to the market will be handled by these investors. However, there are other, newer investors who are believers in the concept of a more decentralized transaction system, particularly in light of increased cybersecurity risks, as well as widespread geopolitical uncertainty.
Additionally, many early investors in bitcoin and ethereum have either held or reinvested profits into other cryptocurrencies.I believe that these cryptocurrencies (which are built on blockchain tech) emerging as an asset class are just one application of blockchain technology.
Bitcoin at $10K and a cryptocurrency combined market cap of $300 billion is only an introduction to what the underlying technology means in terms of value creation.
I went to my first bitcoin conference in 2013. I knew that decentralized technology would form the thesis of the new venture capital fund I was launching, and I was interested in learning more how bitcoin would contribute to the thesis.
That conference reminded me of the first time I logged into the internet in 1994 — I literally got goosebumps thinking of how revolutionary the technology could be.
Bitcoin at $10K and a cryptocurrency combined market cap of $300 billion is only an introduction to what the underlying blockchain technology means in terms of value creation.
I bought my first bitcoins after Mt. Gox imploded and China first shut down bitcoin exchanges in April 2014, when the price hovered around $400. Early in 2014, I launched Future\Perfect Ventures, an early-stage venture fund, to invest in the infrastructure and early use cases around blockchain and other decentralized technology.
While similar to the internet in many ways, I viewed the buildout and new business models that would emerge as exponentially larger in potential. For the first time, we have a truly global technology revolution on our hands, fueled by smartphones, sensors and blockchain tech.
In 2000, there were only 415 million internet users in the world, only 8 percent of which were in developing markets. By 2017, the number of internet users had grown to 3.9 billion, 40 percent of which are now in those same developed markets.
Imagine what will happen when the next three billion people come online and the opportunities for value creation that will follow — particularly in markets where there is no legacy infrastructure in place and decentralized technology can leapfrog financial institutions, real estate, capital markets, identity platforms (and more) as we know them in the developed world.
I broke down the first fund’s investment thesis into four categories that I believed represented opportunity in the first phase of the technology: Infrastructure (the blockchain wallet); emerging-market use cases (including payments; for example, Abra); enterprise migration (including supply chain management — see Everledger); and identity management (for example, Civic).
Our second fund builds on these areas as we see new protocols and applications continue to emerge, with the added thesis of tokens as a new asset class.
The combined market cap of Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft is now at $3.4 trillion. Given the inherently global, accessible and nonlinear nature of decentralized technology, I would not be surprised if we quickly exceeded this number.
The real excitement — from established investors to bootstrapped businesses in far-flung places — comes from the palpable potential that the next phase of this new market buildout has to create value by, and for, all seven billion people in the world.
A technology veteran with over 20 years as an entrepreneur and VC, Jalak Jobanputra founded Future\Perfect Ventures in 2014. She has invested in more than 80 early-stage companies over the past 15 years, resulting in several multi-billion dollar acquisitions and IPOs.
She is widely renowned as a blockchain thought leader, and was one of the first investors in the blockchain space in 2013. She was recently named one of Institutional Investor’s Most Powerful Fintech Dealmakers. Previously, Jobanputra was a director at Omidyar Network, managing mobile investments in emerging markets, and SVP at the New York City Investment Fund, where she launched a seed tech fund and the Fintech Innovation Lab.
She was also at Intel Capital in Silicon Valley from 1999-2003, on the founding team of a web startup in 1997, and a tech/media/telecom investment banker at Lehman Brothers in NYC and London.
She has served on multiple advisory boards for the White House, NYC Mayor’s Office and the U.S. State Department, and serves on the board of directors for the Center for an Urban Future. Reach her at @jalak.
More reports from Recode can be discovered here: https://www.recode.net/2017/11/29/16716014/bitcoin-price-10k-ethereum-blockchain-cryptocurrency-valu...
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The digital currency (or cryptocurrency) markets continue to swell with bitcoin - the most popular online token - surging to a new record in trading today, at over $9,700. It has been a phenomenal 2017 for bitcoin, which has soared a staggering 870% year to date.
Such has been the growing interest in the cryptocurrency market that bitcoin's main rival ethereum also hit an all-time high of $425.55 during the Thanksgiving weekend.
Despite what many refer to as 'a massive speculative bubble that is destined to end badly for investors,' the market cap for cryptocurrencies has exploded since the beginning of 2017, growing seven-fold in value to around $285 billion as of Friday, and still climbing at a rapid clip.
To put the market value in perspective, it is now ahead of financial services major Visa Inc. V .While financial theorists continue to argue whether bitcoin and other major digital currencies' dizzying rally is a bubble or not, the underlying technology that sits behind them - blockchain - is here to stay.
Blockchain: Disruptive Technology with Wide Range of ApplicationsBlockchain is the world's leading software platform for digital assets.
It was first developed as the technology platform maintaining the bitcoin transaction database -- a shared ledger with real-time auto updates that can process and settle payments in minutes using computer algorithms, without the requirement for third-party verification.
Since then, the technology has gone mainstream with uses in an array of industries, from finance to insurance. In fact, some observers believe that blockchain has the potential to be as disruptive for the global financial services industry as Amazon.com AMZN was for retail.
Promising a major paradigm shift, blockchain technology can usher in cheaper and faster processes with its ability to digitize transactions smoothly and efficiently.
Organizations Focused on Developing Blockchain SolutionsEarlier this month, a consortium including European energy majors BP plc BP , Royal Dutch Shell plc RDS.A and Statoil announced the development of a blockchain-based digital tool for commodities trading.
The venture, expected to start by the end of 2018, is being backed by banks ABN Amro, ING and Societe General. Once it takes off, the platform aims to move away from physical trading using traditional paper documentation, to smart and secure electronic contracts managing transactions from trade entry to final settlement.
Given the versatility and the infinite possibilities of the tool, it's quite obvious that such a technology could easily be expanded far beyond commodity trading and into other avenues.
Recently, eleven companies - including New York-based blockchain firm Axoni as well as U.S. banking giants Goldman Sachs GS and J P Morgan Chase JPM - successfully completed a blockchain-based pilot project for processing equity swaps.
The six-month experiment achieved success across swap transaction aspects such as amendment and termination of operations, stock splits, and dividends.
Meanwhile, tech giant IBM IBM is working on a new blockchain banking solution to help simplify complex and costly cross-border financial transactions by reducing settlement time and lowering the cost of completing global payments for businesses and consumers.
Number of Active Corporate Investors SwellingPer a report by data firm CB Insights, Google GOOGL and Goldman Sachs are among the most active corporate blockchain investors, vying with the likes of Japan-based financial services firm SBI Holdings, Citigroup and Overstock.com Inc. OSTK -- a merchant services provider.
Reflecting the interest of big business in the technology, the report also found that the number of firms putting their money in blockchain companies hit a record high of 91 this year, while there have been 42 equity investment deals by corporations aggregating $327 million.
This is slightly below the $390 million recorded in the whole of 2016.In particular, companies like Overstock are preparing themselves to cash in on the cryptocurrency bandwagon by launching an exchange for the digital coins.
Investors believe that the inevitable acceptance of these payment modes across a wide spectrum of businesses will result in handsome earnings and revenue growth going forward.
No wonder that the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock hit a four-year high recently on mounting excitement around the company's venture into blockchain. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here .
Potential of the BlockchainConsidering the numerous benefits of blockchain and its almost unlimited usage, the technology platform has the potential to revolutionize transactions by reducing complexity, cutting costs, boosting accuracy and lowering counterparty risk.
Will You Make a Fortune on the Shift to Electric Cars?Here's another stock idea to consider. Much like petroleum 150 years ago, lithium power may soon shake the world, creating millionaires and reshaping geo-politics.
Soon electric vehicles (EVs) may be cheaper than gas guzzlers. Some are already reaching 265 miles on a single charge.
With battery prices plummeting and charging stations set to multiply, one company stands out as the #1 stock to buy according to Zacks research.It's not the one you think.
NASDAQ publishes reports and news covering blockchain, technology and the financial markets to keep you ahead of the curve. Discover more here: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/blockchain-disruptive-technology-is-here-to-stay-cm882850
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Ari Paul , CONTRIBUTOR
CIO of BlockTower Capital Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
The total market value of cryptocurrency has increased from $18 billion at the start of the year to over $300 billion today. Sometimes it seems like everyone is talking about Bitcoin, yet less than 1% of the world owns any. Cryptocurrency today is similar to the tech boom in 1994.
CustomTable
Bitcoin and EmailEmail, as we think of it today, was invented in 1972 by Arpanet engineer Ray Tomlinson. Email was the first, and for a long time, the only, “killer application” of the internet. Bitcoin was launched in January 2009; it was both the first cryptocurrency and the first blockchain.
Bitcoin, as trustless and censorship-resistant money, was the only blockchain “killer app” for many years.For 15 years, email was mostly a toy for engineering hobbyists and a small number of scientific researchers. It wasn’t until the late 1980s that email began to enjoy meaningful commercial use, and not until the mid 1990s for widespread retail use.
To make the jump from hobbyists to commercial and then average retail users required three factors. First, the technology itself had to be developed to a point that it was standardized, stable, and had features valuable to users. Second, user interfaces had to be developed to make email approachable to non-engineers.
And third, the user base had to grow over time; the more people that use email the more valuable it is to each user, and this virtuous cycle of adoption takes time to play out. Similarly, Bitcoin was mostly a curiosity for engineering hobbyists from 2009 to 2016.
In 2013 we saw the first hint of broader adoption as companies like Coinbase made Bitcoin more accessible to non-technical users, but in 2013 Bitcoin still faced technological problems (like an unintentional hard fork), few user-friendly interfaces, and a minimal network effects.
By 2017, Bitcoin had a proven stable protocol, a plethora of user friendly interfaces (including ATMs in most big cities and Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) that allowed Bitcoin investment via an IRA or 401k), and a user base that had reached critical mass such that Bitcoin could be purchased, traded, and spent throughout most of the world.
Precise estimates of adoption are impossible, but we can produce a rough guesstimate. Combining data from Coinbase with work by researchers Garrick Hileman and Michel Rauchs (2 - Crypto Adoption Study) we estimate that the total number of bitcoin users and holders is around 45 million people today, representing about 1/2 of 1% of the global population.
This places us at the very early days of non-technical adoption.Like email in 1994, Bitcoin provides value today. It can consistently and securely transmit monetary value across the planet and also provides a censorship and judgement-resistant store of value. Like email in 1994, Bitcoin is a robust technology ready for widespread use, but very early in its adoption curve.
And like email in 1994, the small network of users means that there are few people to whom you can send Bitcoin, and this leads many to question its usefulness. What about other cryptocurrencies and other use cases?
Original Chart. Data Source: http://www.virginia.edu/virginia/archive/webstats.html
Internet Access Over Time
Cryptocurrencies and WebsitesThe first public website went live in 1991. The first commercial web browser went live in 1993 and provided access to the 130 websites that existed at the time. By 1994, the count ballooned to 2,738 websites.
These websites included corporate homepages, news, personal blogs, pornography, content aggregators, an online encyclopedia and the first online retailers. Early websites were mostly electronic versions of “real world” things like newspapers, and many of these use cases persist today. What’s notable is what was missing in 1994.
LinkedIn, Reddit, and Facebook had no 1994 analogue. And while we can draw a straight line between Encyclopedia Britannica and Wikipedia, or between MTV.com and Youtube, the introduction of community sourced content places the latter in a truly new category.
As with the internet in 1994, many use cases for cryptocurrency have already been presented in nascent form, but are “too early” (1- Web Timeline). The online retailers of 1994 mostly failed because they launched before there was sufficient user adoption and infrastructure to support their success.
In 1994 there were too few internet users, too little trust in online credit card processing, and too little underlying infrastructure for online merchants to thrive. Another example of the problem of being “too early”: you can’t launch a high speed video streaming service if your potential customers are on dial-up modems.
Many cryptocurrency projects are struggling for similar reasons. There are too few users prepared to utilize cryptocurrency, there’s too little trust in cryptocurrency and blockchains from a security perspective, and there’s a lack of underlying infrastructure.
Additionally, as with 1994, some of the eventual world changing use cases probably haven’t yet been thought up.Cryptocurrency has been gradually maturing since its birth in 2009. The technology has grown more stable and trustworthy, the user interfaces (GUIs, ATMs, hardware wallets for easier secure storage, etc) make the tech accessible to non-engineers, and the network effects continue to grow along with the user base and market liquidity.
But…global adoption remains trivial at less than 1%. The entire combined market value of all cryptocurrency is less than half of Facebook’s equity and 1/25th the market value of gold.Where does that leave us as investors? Investing in the internet in 1994 wasn’t easy. Many of the first movers in online commerce went bust.
Many of the more ambitious projects were “too early” such that the eventual winners of those niches hadn’t yet been born; you may have wanted to invest in social media, but Facebook wouldn’t be born for another decade. These same problems exist for the cryptocurrency investor in 2017.
As investors, we want to focus on three categories: 1. mature technologies achieving rapid adoption and network growth, 2. next generation technology for which the necessary infrastructure is in place or soon will be, and 3. “pick-and-shovel” producers that provide the infrastructure on which future uses depend.
With all of the calls of "bubble", it's worth remembering that we're in the early stages of global adoption as well as the early stages of development of the technology. Capital is flooding in to cryptocurrency and like all floods of capital, some will find unproductive uses like the weaker ICOs with poor business cases and governance.
But the strong, anti-fragile blockchain protocols are just emerging on the asset class journey. We are not at the tech commercialization starting line as in 1992, nor the first iteration Web 1.0 finishing line of 1999, but rather somewhere like 1994.
If you have enjoyed reading this extensive report, discover even more published by Forbes here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/apaul/2017/11/27/its-1994-in-cryptocurrency/#64e4523b28a3
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Francisco Gimeno - BC Analyst Good report. With all the doom and gloom of "the bubble of all the bubbles" is good to put things in perspective.
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