In this conversation from a16z’s Runtime, Gavin Baker, Managing Partner and CIO of Atreides Management, joins David George, General Partner at a16z, to unpack the macro view of AI: the trillion-dollar data center buildout, the new economics of GPUs, and what this boom means for investors, founders, and the global economy.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:02 Are We in an AI Bubble? Setting the Stage with Data
02:41 Lessons from 2000: Dark Fiber vs. “No Dark GPUs”
05:07 ROI on AI: Why This Time Is Different
06:42 Nvidia, Google, and the Race to Win AI Infrastructure
08:36 Round-Tripping Deals and Competitive Pressure
10:58 Google’s TPU Advantage and the Four Leading Labs
12:22 The Application Layer: It’s Still Early
13:46 Big Tech’s “Right to Win” and the Execution Gap
15:24 Margins, Scaling Laws, and the Business Model Shift
17:18 Why Lower Gross Margins Mean Real AI Usage
19:44 SaaS, Software, and the Cloud Transition Analogy
21:12 Consumer AI, Browsers, and the Battle for Distribution
23:26 Reasoning Models and the Data Flywheel Effect
25:02 Chips, TPUs, and Broadcom’s Bet Against Nvidia
27:18 The Future of Business Models: Paying for Outcomes
29:41 Robotics, Humanoids, and Elon’s Optimus Vision
32:15 Closing Thoughts
Resources:
Full Transcript on our Substack: https://a16z.substack.com/p/gavin-bak...
Follow Gavin on X: https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow Atreides Management on X: https://x.com/atreidesmgmt
Follow David on X: https://x.com/DavidGeorge83
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Resources:
Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16z
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Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RD...
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:02 Are We in an AI Bubble? Setting the Stage with Data
02:41 Lessons from 2000: Dark Fiber vs. “No Dark GPUs”
05:07 ROI on AI: Why This Time Is Different
06:42 Nvidia, Google, and the Race to Win AI Infrastructure
08:36 Round-Tripping Deals and Competitive Pressure
10:58 Google’s TPU Advantage and the Four Leading Labs
12:22 The Application Layer: It’s Still Early
13:46 Big Tech’s “Right to Win” and the Execution Gap
15:24 Margins, Scaling Laws, and the Business Model Shift
17:18 Why Lower Gross Margins Mean Real AI Usage
19:44 SaaS, Software, and the Cloud Transition Analogy
21:12 Consumer AI, Browsers, and the Battle for Distribution
23:26 Reasoning Models and the Data Flywheel Effect
25:02 Chips, TPUs, and Broadcom’s Bet Against Nvidia
27:18 The Future of Business Models: Paying for Outcomes
29:41 Robotics, Humanoids, and Elon’s Optimus Vision
32:15 Closing Thoughts
Resources:
Full Transcript on our Substack: https://a16z.substack.com/p/gavin-bak...
Follow Gavin on X: https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow Atreides Management on X: https://x.com/atreidesmgmt
Follow David on X: https://x.com/DavidGeorge83
Stay Updated:
If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends!
Resources:
Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16z
Find a16z on LinkedIn: / a16z
Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RD...
Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.