Galileo viewed nature as a book written in the language of mathematics and decipherable through physics. His metaphor may have been a stretch for his milieu, but not for ours. Ours is a world of digits that must be read through computer science.

It is a world in which artificial-intelligence (AI) applications perform many tasks better than we can. Like fish in water, digital technologies are our infosphere’s true natives, while we analog organisms try to adapt to a new habitat, one that has come to include a mix of analog and digital components.

We are sharing the infosphere with artificial agents that are increasingly smart, autonomous, and even social. Some of these agents are already right in front of us, and others are discernible on the horizon, while later generations are unforeseeable. And the most profound implication of this epochal change may be that we are most likely only at the beginning of it.

The AI agents that have already arrived come in soft forms, such as apps, web bots, algorithms, and software of all kinds; and hard forms, such as robots, driverless cars, smart watches, and other gadgets.

They are replacing even white-collar workers, and performing functions that, just a few years ago, were considered off-limits for technological disruption: cataloguing images, translating documents, interpreting radiographs, flying drones, extracting new information from huge data sets, and so forth.

Digital technologies and automation have been replacing workers in agriculture and manufacturing for decades; now they are coming to the services sector.

More old jobs will continue to disappear, and while we can only guess at the scale of the coming disruption, we should assume that it will be profound. Any job in which people serve as an interface – between, say, a GPS and a car, documents in different languages, ingredients and a finished dish, or symptoms and a corresponding disease – is now at risk.



Image: CB Insights

But, at the same time, new jobs will appear, because we will need new interfaces between automated services, websites, AI applications, and so forth. Someone will need to ensure that the AI service’s translations are accurate and reliable.

What’s more, many tasks will not be cost-effective for AI applications. For example, Amazon’s Mechanical Turk program claims to give its customers “access to more than 500,000 workers from 190 countries,” and is marketed as a form of “artificial artificial intelligence.”

But as the repetition indicates, the human “Turks” are performing brainless tasks, and being paid pennies.These workers are in no position to turn down a job.

The risk is that AI will only continue to polarize our societies – between haves and never-will-haves – if we do not manage its effects. It is not hard to imagine a future social hierarchy that places a few patricians above both the machines and a massive new underclass of plebs.

Meanwhile, as jobs go, so will tax revenues; and it is unlikely that the companies profiting from AI will willingly step in to support adequate social-welfare programs for their former employees.

Instead, we will have to do something to make companies pay more, perhaps with a “robo-tax” on AI applications. We should also consider legislation and regulations to keep certain jobs “human.” Indeed, such measures are also why driverless trains are still rare, despite being more manageable than driverless taxis or buses.

Still, not all of AI’s implications for the future are so obvious. Some old jobs will survive, even when a machine is doing most of the work: a gardener who delegates cutting the grass to a “smart” lawnmower will simply have more time to focus on other things, such as landscape design.

At the same time, other tasks will be delegated back to us to perform (for free) as users, such as in the self-checkout lane at the supermarket.

Another source of uncertainty concerns the point at which AI is no longer controlled by a guild of technicians and managers. What will happen when AI becomes “democratized” and is available to billions of people on their smartphones or some other device?

What’s more, many tasks will not be cost-effective for AI applications. For example, Amazon’s Mechanical Turk program claims to give its customers “access to more than 500,000 workers from 190 countries,” and is marketed as a form of “artificial artificial intelligence.

” But as the repetition indicates, the human “Turks” are performing brainless tasks, and being paid pennies.

These workers are in no position to turn down a job. The risk is that AI will only continue to polarize our societies – between haves and never-will-haves – if we do not manage its effects. It is not hard to imagine a future social hierarchy that places a few patricians above both the machines and a massive new underclass of plebs.

Meanwhile, as jobs go, so will tax revenues; and it is unlikely that the companies profiting from AI will willingly step in to support adequate social-welfare programs for their former employees.

Instead, we will have to do something to make companies pay more, perhaps with a “robo-tax” on AI applications. We should also consider legislation and regulations to keep certain jobs “human.” Indeed, such measures are also why driverless trains are still rare, despite being more manageable than driverless taxis or buses.

Still, not all of AI’s implications for the future are so obvious. Some old jobs will survive, even when a machine is doing most of the work: a gardener who delegates cutting the grass to a “smart” lawnmower will simply have more time to focus on other things, such as landscape design.

At the same time, other tasks will be delegated back to us to perform (for free) as users, such as in the self-checkout lane at the supermarket.

Another source of uncertainty concerns the point at which AI is no longer controlled by a guild of technicians and managers. What will happen when AI becomes “democratized” and is available to billions of people on their smartphones or some other device?

All of these profound transformations oblige us to reflect seriously on who we are, could be, and would like to become. AI will challenge the exalted status we have conferred on our species.

While I do not think that we are wrong to consider ourselves exceptional, I suspect that AI will help us identify the irreproducible, strictly human elements of our existence, and make us realize that we are exceptional only insofar as we are successfully dysfunctional.

In the great software of the universe, we will remain a beautiful bug, and AI will increasingly become a normal feature.

DAVOS, Switzerland — When the world’s leading bankers and policymakers gathered this week at the 50th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, their interest in blockchain technology was resoundingly clear.

“The number one use case of blockchain technology promoted by the government is data sharing,” Zhang Jiachen, CEO of the startup Guangzhishu Technology, said on the sidelines of the WEF. Jiachen said her firm works with several Chinese government agencies. 

Representatives from some nations are watching the People’s Bank of China's (PBoC) central bank digital currency (CBDC) experiment with eager anticipation.

Neha Narula, director of MIT's Digital Currency Initiative, described the dozens of central bank experiments with digital assets in 2020 as “inevitable.

” Along those lines, the WEF published a Central Bank Digital Currency Policy-Maker Toolkit Wednesday to help those projects access global standards if they choose.

“The Bank of Thailand has made good progress on a wholesale CBDC project, called Project Inthanon,” Veerathai Santiprabhob, governor of Bank of Thailand, said in a press statement. “From our experience, we need to identify tradeoffs between benefits from the use cases and their associated risks across different dimensions.”

In turn, Jiachen said Chinese technologists are drawing inspiration from the Facebook-initiated Libra project and ethereum, although she declined to say what types of initiatives are inspired by the latter. 

“Can we join a consortium of countries who would like to use a regional digital currency where the PBoC is part of it?” she said in an interview. “There’s a lot of strategic thinking around whether that’s a real option.”

Multiple efforts

Most experts at Davos appear to agree blockchain technology should be used for more data collection, not self-sovereign finance. 

For example, Ibrahima Guimba-Saidou, technology advisor to the president of Niger, said it will be crucial for emerging economies to use digital reporting systems to avoid embezzlement and other financial crimes.

“My goal is to have a paperless government by 2028,” he said on the sidelines of the WEF.

“How could any leader or government official take that money without being noticed? Cryptocurrency brings that; through the blockchain you know where things are.”

As with China, Guimba-Saidou said his country is curious about the idea of a regional token. 

It may be too soon to say whether bitcoin will be used by African nations, he added, but 15 nations in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are in talks about launching a pan-African currency comparable to the euro. 

Matthew Blake, the WEF’s monetary systems lead, said a digital, regional currency in Africa makes a lot of sense, although the euro has proved that cooperative currency governance is tricky at best. 

While he expressed interest in watching how bitcoin evolves, Blake was skeptical, at best, of nation-states using bitcoin or allowing enterprises to use bitcoin on a significant scale.

Mikail Jabbarov, economic minister of the Azerbaijan Republic, likewise told CoinDesk he struggled to imagine nation-states condoning the use of a decentralized currency. 

While he didn’t suggest it should be banned outright, Jabbarov’s primary concern was collecting know-your-customer (KYC) information associated with bitcoin ownership.

He was otherwise dismissive of the cryptocurrency’s potential for use cases beyond speculation and illicit activities.

At least, in Guimba-Saidou’s case, the focus is on monitoring public servants’ monetary transactions rather than all civilians.

Along those lines, to safeguard who can access civilian monetary records and even passive surveillance of broader patterns, the PBoC recently filed a patent for a blockchain-based system for authorizing access to data.

“We’re going to have a public key infrastructure,” Niger’s Guimba-Saidou said. “That’s how I think we can have the transparency and traceability in place and the accountability that comes from it.

All those things have to be done with independent organizations because otherwise one organization could try to grab the information or alter it.”

Real names

There’s widespread concern about bitcoin wallets that essentially allow “secret bank accounts,” according to Daria Kaleniuk, co-founder of Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Action Center.

In an interview, she said Russia isn’t the only nation with a state-owned nuclear power plant that is also supporting bitcoin mining operations. This trend is also spreading to Ukraine and Moldova, she said, with Ukrainian oligarchs taking dominant roles in the local bitcoin market. 

“When we see a politician declaring bitcoin, we consider him ‘high risk,’” Kaleniuk said. “This money can buy propaganda campaigns. … There needs to be unique identities of natural persons in this data.”

Some of these central bank projects go beyond mere identity checks. In China, there are already efforts to use government data, everything from healthcare data to telecommunications records, to shape financial services offered by the private sector. 

“The government owns a lot of data,” Jiachen said. “They want to enable the private sector to be able to use them but they don’t want to hand over the data ownership. So we help the government in supporting their data-sharing initiatives.”

Most raw data isn’t recorded on the blockchain, she said. Instead, blockchain technology is used to prove the records were verified or calculated at the source, without sharing the original source.

Jiachen said she hopes there will be strict policies that regulate who can request and access such data. MIT’s Nerula mirrored this concern. 

“I hope privacy is a central concern and that it’s implemented with the Application Program Interface [API] in mind,” Nerula said. 

Leigh Cuen✔@La__Cuen

1st #WEF2020 session of the day! @jerallaire says stablecoins allow people to “transact w/each other with the same ease that we communicate & share data,” adding nation-state cryptos are a game changer that he sees as “real disruption” for financial inclusion.


357:39 AM - Jan 21, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy

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Bigger government

Even private investors from a variety of countries, who asked not to be named, were curious about central bank experiments but wary of self-custodied assets. 

Those who are optimistic about digital assets in Davos see them as a way to improve governance rather than reduce reliance on it. 

“It’s easier to track the whole monetary flows and then you can make better monetary policies,” Jiachen said. “Now with a blockchain-based system, you will have a better feedback loop.”

She said many blockchain efforts, beyond the PBoC currency yet also adjacent to it, are targeting cross-border trade.

Meanwhile, economist and ethereum community guru Glen Weyl is busy taking meetings with politicians from emerging economies. He said he’s not a fan of China’s Communist approach but he hopes China’s collective and civic mentality can be leveraged to help pioneer value systems beyond traditional assets. 

“Eventually we need to have less money and have forms of value that are more socially contextualized, like weighted edges on a graph that represent favors owed,” Weyl said in an interview. “China has social credit, so in some ways they are much more attuned to the social aspect" of money.

In order to avoid dystopian consequences, Weyl is working with organizations like the World Bank to develop the Data Freedom Act, which asserts data collectors have a “fiduciary responsibility and democratic responsibility” to both protect it and not flagrantly use data without consent.

The document is based on providing a framework for “collective bargaining,” Weyl said, to give civilians more power to challenge problematic situations than they would have as individuals. 

Speaking more broadly about CBDC experiments, WEF executive committee member Blake said the organization wants to "lean in" and "be active" there.

Although such bankers may still be a minority, Zurich-based SEBA Bank AG opened in November 2019 with a universal banking license and a suite of services ranging from fiat storage to crypto custody, a crypto-connected debit card that automatically converts to fiat on the backend for regular shopping and crypto-trading options through the bank’s mobile app.  

SEBA CEO Guido Bühler said the bank raised 100 million Swiss francs (roughly $103.4 million) from angel investors including Guy Schwarzenbach, founder of Black River Asset Management. 

Schwarzenbach said the pricing for SEBA app trades, enabled by backend API integrations with global exchanges, offered “extremely competitive” pricing compared to over-the-counter trades. 

“What I am really excited about for SEBA … is their upcoming deployment of a margin and lending business, including options and derivatives,” Schwarzenbach said. 

SEBA was hardly the first bitcoin-friendly Swiss bank. The private bank Falcon Group, for example, launched bitcoin management services in 2017. Matthew Blake, the World Economic Forum's monetary systems lead, described crypto-friendly, fully licensed banks as an emerging trend.

"It's something institutions can do to hedge," he said.

Likewise, the Swiss crypto startup Bitcoin Suisse has also applied for a universal banking license with the goal of offering everything from staking services to loans. 

“We're not applying for a banking license just to be like every other bank. We are pioneers at heart,” said Bitcoin Suisse marketing lead Ian Simpson.

“We will, of course, offer cash accounts for our clients, in their own name. ... We will be able to start trading crypto securities, stablecoins and synthetics, such as mini-futures and products to short the major crypto assets.” 

Crypto bank

However, among such banks so far, SEBA offers a unique ability to hold a variety of many fiat currencies, including American dollars, Hong Kong dollars and Singaporean dollars, then instantly trade cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, ether and Stellar lumens. 

“You can open an account over the phone in 15 minutes for an accredited investor, you don’t have to go to Switzerland,” Bühler said. “There’s always going to be aspects that banks are required for, and the first one is the storage of your private key.” 

For Schwarzenbach, who described himself as a libertarian who runs his own Lightning Network node he made using a Raspberry Pi, bitcoin banking makes sense for the physical security benefits. He wouldn’t want the risk of someone hurting him to get at his bitcoin stash.

Bühler said the young bank already serves high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors from all over the world, excluding the United States, plus a few blockchain startups. 

Schwarzenbach added that open source decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms inspired by MakerDAO could eventually offer comparable financial infrastructure to both the general population and the proverbial 1 percent. 

“My hope is that we will be able to develop and adopt that [DeFi] infrastructure,” Schwarzenbach said. “And it is my expectation that standards will present themselves with market maturation.” 

Vodafone has bailed on Facebook‘s cryptocurrency project, Libra, to focus on expanding its own solution for faster cross-border payments beyond Africa.The telecommunications giant is the latest in a string of companies to have left the Libra Association, alongside Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, and Ebay, CoinDesk reports.

[Read: Facebook’s Libra ‘cryptocurrency’ is turning into a soap opera — and it’s gonna be a long season] 

Libra, a stablecoin-esque digital currency first revealed in mid-2019, has faced an onslaught of criticism from regulators worldwide, who’ve shared concerns its success could destabilize world economies by undermining the Euro.

Vodafone would rather spend resources on M-Pesa (not a crypto)

In response to the news, Vodafone said it was still “fully committed” to making a “genuine contribution to extending financial inclusion,” but it seems it just won’t be through a cryptocurrency.

A Vodafone spokesperson told reporters it believes it can assist the world’s poor by focusing on M-Pesa, a money platform for smartphones with a pronounced presence in developing economies across Africa, particularly Kenya.

M-Pesa, launched in 2007, currently boasts more than 30 million users across 10 countries. The service also reportedly processed 6 billion transactions in 2016 alone.The app has no exposure to cryptocurrency, and operates more within the traditional finance system.

Can Facebook launch Libra on time?

Facebook originally planned to release Libra in the first half of 2020, but execs have since maintained the social media mainstay would only do so once all regulatory considerations have been addressed.

It was that same red tape that pushed Mastercard and Visa to part ways with the Libra Foundation, months before the Swiss finance minister would say the country isn’t likely to approve Libra as it is right now.

This has obviously left Zuckerberg and co. in a tight spot. As all this plays out, a raft of European central banks joined forces to better explore the use cases of central bank digital currencies, spurred on by corporate ‘cryptocurrencies‘ like Libra.

The Bank of England will examine how Britain could adopt a bitcoin-style digital currency as part of a global group of central banks that have joined together to examine the possible pitfalls of relying on electronic money.

Bank officials will meet with the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Sveriges Riksbank, the Bank of Canada, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to pool research and experiences of the potential for a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

The BoE deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe will co-chair the group with Benoît Cœuré, a former ECB board member and head of the BIS innovation hub.The move comes amid the emergence of private sector digital currencies, such as bitcoin and Facebook’s libra, which is due to be launched this year.

Facebook’s plans for its libra coin and a digital wallet have caught the attention of regulators and central banks worldwide, with Threadneedle Street being among those vowing tough new rules.

The BoE was among several central banks to warn that libra would need to be regulated, leading many supporters to end their relationship with the digital currency.

The idea of a central bank digital currency has been increasingly mooted worldwide to help improve payment systems and cross-border transactions.

The Bank said the new working group would look at “CBDC use cases; economic, functional and technical design choices, including cross-border interoperability; and the sharing of knowledge on emerging technologies”.

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It will also work closely with other global forums and groups, such as the Financial Stability Board and the committee on payments and market infrastructures (CPMI), which is also chaired by Cunliffe.

Just last month, Sweden’s central bank said it would sign a deal with the consultancy firm Accenture to create a pilot platform for a digital currency, known as the e-krona.

The Riksbank has been exploring the idea of its own digital currency for some time, especially given the rapid decline in the use of cash in Sweden.The European Central Bank has also been investigating the possible benefits of CBDC since last year.

Fran Boait, executive director of Positive Money, said policymakers had been slow to realise how much enthusiasm there was for digital money.

Sign up to the daily Business Today email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDesk“They have been asleep at the wheel over the future of our money system being determined by a small number of banks, payment companies and now tech giants.

“The rapid decline of cash and threat of private digital currencies like Facebook’s libra have served as a much-needed wake-up call, but central bankers have a lot of catching up to do.

“Central banks need to accelerate plans for a central bank digital currency, which would both ensure that people have the choice of a safe public banking option and prevent our monetary system being completely surrendered to unaccountable private interests.

This new group must serve as a vehicle for doing so.”

BTG Pactual, the third biggest investment bank in Latin America, and the Dubai-based asset manager Dalma Capital announced plans today to use the Tezos blockchain to launch security token offerings.

In so doing, the banks hope to “address a deal pipeline in excess of $1bn for existing and prospective token issuances,” the companies said in a press release.

Last February, BTG Pactual became the first major investment bank to officially launch a Security Token Offering (STO) with ReiBZ, which serves the Brazilian real estate industry.

The token was launched using the Ethereum protocol, but will now be migrated to Tezos, according the announcement.

“While the bank remains protocol and technology agnostic, and will continue to utilize the Ethereum protocol, we see Tezos as a global player with a robust blockchain for asset tokenization,” said Andre Portilho, the BTG’s Partner responsible for the STO initiative. 

BTG and Dalma said they were planning to tokenize a range of traditional and alternative investments on the Tezos blockchain, including projects with global sports clubs and equity and debt interests.

Highlighted in the announcement was the fact that Tezos, is a “self-amending blockchain” and smart contracts platform.

While both platforms feature smart contracts, Tezos is validated by proof-of stake and has on-chain governance, as opposed to the off-chain, proof-of-work model followed by Ethereum (a comparison of the two can be found here.)

The opposing methods have caused plenty of debate. Tezos has been billed as one of the early “Ethereum killers.” The startups’ co-founder, Arthur Breitman, told Decrypt last year that his rationale for the Tezos system was to have a “solid, safe ledger,” and that this is something you can’t achieve if there’s only one person in charge.

Tim Draper, CEO and Founder of Draper Associates, a prominent Tezos stakeholder said, “We are excited to see BTG Pactual and Dalma Capital making use of the Tezos blockchain–we are believers in the Tezos project and see a strong use case for security tokens.”

Andra Capital, a San Francisco-based venture capital firm, has announced its own token: Silicon Valley Coin (SVC). The company plans to issue it via a security token offering (STO) in collaboration with Tezos Foundation and TokenSoft.

According to the press release shared with Decrypt today, SVC will be built on the Tezos blockchain and utilize TokenSoft’s issuance platform. The fund will use it to invest in late-stage technology companies.
 “Andra Capital’s open-ended technology fund allows investors to invest in the fund traditionally with the option to take delivery of a blockchain-based token, Silicon Valley Coin,” the announcement states.

The Tezos blockchain was chosen thanks to its institutional-grade security of smart contracts and several features “well suited” for high-value digital assets such as security tokens in the long term.

1.

Paolo Ardoino, Chief technology officer of Bitfinex

Aside from Bitcoin, I follow Ether, Tether, Monero, Tezos, Algorand and many other tokens listed on Bitfinex. It’s important to keep up to date with recent developments.


2.

Marc P. Bernegger, Fintech investor at Crypto Finance

Although Libra will probably never be implemented in the originally planned version, the developments there are very relevant for the entire crypto industry. So, I follow the developments there very closely.At the same time, I keep an eye on some interesting altcoins, which are characterized by a solid founder team and a sustainable business case and therefore have a lot of potential for the future.Let's remember: Amazon's stock plummeted 96% after the dot-com bubble and has since become one of the most successful companies worldwide.

3.

Sebastian Borget, Co-founder and chief operations officer at The Sandbox

We are actively looking at all new games with blockchain technology and presales of nonfungible tokens. Of course, we are also closely watching the recent news around Libra, China’s involvement into blockchain with Digital Yuan, the DeFi space with DAI and how legislation is becoming more open to decentralization.

4.

Paul Brody, Blockchain lead at Ernst & Young

I watch Ether, but mostly to see that the ecosystem is healthy. Very high prices drive away innovators and low prices may discourage others. In reality, though blockchain contains the possibility of digital scarcity, that is far from its greatest asset. I hope we will use this technology to bring forward an era of abundance.


5.

David Chaum, Founder of Elixxir

There are a lot of talented teams taking on important challenges. To be honest, this year, my focus has been on building the XX Network team and blockchain. We are really excited about the opportunities for the XX Network and the XX Coin in the year ahead!

6.

Virginia Cram-Martos, CEO of Triangularity

Ether and the possible issuance of central bank digital currencies.


7.

Eric Crown, Wall Street trader

I think it's quite clear within this market — except for a few outliers here and there — if Bitcoin doesn't go up, no one is going up. And in fact, even when Bitcoin goes up, sometimes other people still don't go up. So, I'd say that if you're looking for a cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, it's pretty much contingent upon Bitcoin’s movements to begin with. If Bitcoin is not healthy in 2020, which is starting to shape up to be a little bit more of a reality — as the trends set themselves pretty damn staunchly here — I'd say that except for maybe a few one-offs, I have nothing on my radar. Nothing consistent, really.


8.

John deVadoss, Head of development at Neo

I track and watch Neo. Additionally, I watch the emerging central bank digital currencies. I believe that we will see waves of both forward-thinking innovation and myopic regulatory roadblocks, both of which will shape the crypto sector.

9.

Daniel Diemers, Head of blockchain at PwC

In my role as head of blockchain for EMEA, I have a professional duty to follow many other coins and tokens beyond Bitcoin. And I think this is also what makes the ecosystem so diverse and interesting. Whether you are a big visionary or just have a small idea about some use case, today you can realize both with blockchain and together with the crypto community. One big trend I foresee, for example, is much more lending against cryptocurrencies. In classic capital markets, this is as normal as it gets, but in crypto, it’s not in line with the “Hodl” mindset.

But with efficient transfers on more liquid markets, staking, and more classic banks and wealth managers going crypto in 2020, we will see much more of that. On the admittedly a bit dogmatic cryptocurrency purist frontline, I believe 2020 will be a very interesting, much broader “Battle of the Currencies”: central bank-issued digital currencies on blockchain vs. incumbent cryptocurrencies vs. privacy coins vs. Libra-type ecosystem tokens vs. stablecoins vs. security tokens — I’m super excited to see what all will happen next year.


10.

Tim Draper, Venture capitalist

Other than Bitcoin, probably Tezos — because they are making huge advances. Things are going very well for them, and there are lots of interesting engineers doing interesting work to apply to Tezos. I think that's going to be really exciting.


11.

Adam Ficsor, CEO of Wasabi Wallet

I was closely watching some a few years back, but got tired of wasting my time with that. If someone comes up with something valuable, it won't go under my radar, I hope.

12.

Joshua Frank, CEO of The TIE

I focus the vast majority of my time on Bitcoin, as I strongly believe that if BTC does not succeed, the rest of the digital asset market can’t. While I don’t think it would be a catalyst for upward movement of the crypto market, I am interested in watching developments of internal tokens as rapid 24/7 settlement mechanisms within the largest global banks.

13.

Mati Greenspan, Founder of Quantum Economics

Though they don't offer much for the average investor, it's certainly worth watching the central banks in their digital currency initiatives. China is leading, of course, and we expect to see a digital yuan launched within the first half of the year. Europe will likely be a close second, and we can expect a digital euro to be developed through 2020. Libra is still in question.More interesting, though, for crypto traders is the current war between the platforms working toward decentralized consumer applications as they vie for positioning and market share. 


14.

Helen Hai, Head of Binance Charity Foundation

Central bank digital currency.

15.

Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMEX

I follow other coins out of pure fascination and curiosity, but with that only.


16.

Ivan on Tech, YouTube influencer

Tezos and Cardano. We are adding programming courses for these two platforms to the Ivan on Tech Academy next year and both have super exciting developments!


17.

Sasha Ivanov, Founder and CEO of Waves

I don't follow any coins in particular, but rather am following the market in general. I think next year we'll finally start seeing some kind of decoupling, the market in general will have a lower correlation to BTC.


18.

Christoph Iwaniez, Chief financial officer of Bitwala

We are convinced of Ether because Ethereum opens up a wide range of new possibilities, especially in the field of DeFi. We look with interest at DeFi projects like MakerDAO from the Ethereum community.


19.

John Jefferies, CFA at CipherTrace

I watch Libra, digital yuan, crypto rial, ETH, BNB, EOS, Ripple and Tether. I also watch privacy coins quite closely, including Monero, Zcash and Dash; Bitcoin projects Snowball and Lighting; Decred; the Ethereum Aztec protocol; Grin; Beam; and Litecoin.


20.

Tal Kol, Co-founder of Orbs

I would like to have the industry showcase use-cases in production that solve everyday problems and are relevant. Specifically, I hope to showcase how blockchain is relevant for the 2020 elections. In November, we were honored to be one of the few projects presenting to the Congressional Blockchain Caucus at the Blockchain on the Hill event organized by the Global Blockchain Business Council.

The event came at the request of members of Congress who wanted to hear about use cases aside from cryptocurrencies and financials. The use case we presented was the blockchain-based solution for digital content authentication, a solution that can help with copyright protection — but equally interesting, fighting fake users and fake content. 


21.

Sanja Kon, Vice president of global partnerships at Utrust

Aside from Bitcoin (BTC), I obviously follow Utrust’s native token, UTK, very closely as well as Ether (ETH) and the major coins based on liquidity. Utrust integrated Dash, a top digital currency for payments and ecommerce, and DigiByte (DGB) on the platform this year. These are two coins I’m really excited to follow and see how they progress in 2020. With thousands of coins listed on CoinMarketCap, it's impossible to follow every coin, but I love learning about new projects and like to stay up to date on market movements on a daily basis.

22.

Jonathan Levin, Co-founder and chief security officer of Chainalysis

Libra is interesting because of its reach and potential. We will continue to watch that closely. We also keep an eye on innovation competitions, research papers and proof of concepts on state-issued digital currencies. 

23.

Evan Luthra, Serial tech entrepreneur, founder of StartupStudio.online and iyoko.io

The most anticipated currency today is the digital yuan. Given China's leading position in the global economy, this will be a significant step in changing the financial system. The Chinese authorities are actively introducing many modern technologies into the everyday life of their citizens, so it can be expected that, at least within the country, the crypto yuan will quickly spread in accordance with the country's plans.

And for the rest of the countries, 2020 should be the year of the release of their own digital currencies. But, most likely, they will appear only after crypto yuan.I am not a trader but I do keep a lookout on some of my recent major investments, such as Vid.Camera , GLBrain, Dreamr.app and some others.


24.

Alex Mashinsky, CEO of Celsius

I like ETH, EOS and of course CEL. There are a lot of interesting tokens, but the question is: Do they reward users in the form of yield? We think those tokens and DeFi projects that prioritize holders and users will be thriving in 10 years’ time.


25.

John McAfee, Cryptocurrency entrepreneur

That would be my own token, Whackd. I mean, listen, Whackd is the token of f---ing tokens. I mean, for example, of every transaction, no matter what the amount, 10% of that transaction is sent to the burn address — it just goes up in vapor, it doesn't go to anybody. And one in every one-thousand transactions, no matter how important it is to you or how much is involved, the whole f---ing thing is burned. And it's like, you can be "whackd," which happens statistically to 1 out of 1000 people. As hard as that is to believe, now we have the Whackd token. You want to get out there and play in the real f---ing world? Buy Whackd — you're sure to lose, eventually, everything you have. That's my prediction for 2020.


26.

Nicholas Merten, Founder of YouTube channel DataDash

For me, I'm really interested to see whether or not central banks will create digital currencies. Basically dollars on public blockchains like Ethereum. If they do this, it would be a massive sign that crypto is here to stay, and that central banks do not want to be left behind. The European Central Bank seems to be taking the lead on this forefront.

27.

Diogo Monica, Co-founder and president of Anchorage

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have found a strong use case as stores of value, but the world is still waiting for a cryptocurrency that achieves massive scale adoption as a medium of exchange. Both as a founding member of the Libra Association and as a custodian working to support all assets that meet our standards of quality and security,  we’re looking forward to the many cryptocurrencies slated to launch in 2020.


28.

Samson Mow, Chief strategy officer of Blockstream

I’ve kept a close eye on Libra this year, simply because it was a spectacular failure to watch. Also, I find central bank crypto tokens interesting as, depending on how they are designed, they could compete with stablecoins.


29.

Niklas Nikolajsen, Chairman and founder at Bitcoin Suisse AG

A key protocol to watch out for is Ethereum 2.0 (and by extension, Ethereum 1.0). Also, the developments on Telegram/TON will be interesting to follow, following the SEC intervention last year, so will be Libra and ChinaCoin (the digital yuan). But it may well be that both of the latter massive initiatives will fall short of being a true crypto asset and become more like digital cash systems. Moreover, Tezos developed a lot in 2019 and will be very interesting to watch — as will some of the other alternative blockchains, such as Cardano, Aeternity, Polkadot/Web3 and others. In 2020, it will likely be clear which blockchains and crypto assets are here to stay and which are not.


30.

Kim Nilsson, Blockchain researcher at WizSec

I haven't found any other coins that interest me other than Bitcoin. First of all, most altcoins are scams. Second, even projects that at least try to build something interesting usually fail, or aren't careful or experienced enough, and always deliver worse decentralization properties than Bitcoin in practice. For all intents and purposes, practical decentralization was the only new thing Bitcoin brought to the table over the many previous unsuccessful attempts at digital currencies, and to this day Bitcoin remains the gold standard of decentralization.

Why should anyone be interested in tradeoffs on this? That's like discovering a cure for cancer and then later competitors start marketing "Cure 2.0,” a different drug that's only half as good at treating cancer but contains vitamin C and strawberry flavoring. It's distracting from and missing the point.


31.

Zac Prince, CEO of BlockFi

Stablecoins, Libra and other crossovers like Pax Gold.


32.

Alessio Rastani, Trader

I would say Neo. I've heard from some great Bitcoin traders and also Bitcoin investors — and again, this is their opinion, not mine — but they're saying that Neo is a Chinese-backed cryptocurrency that could potentially have some momentum in the next few years.


33.

Phillip Sandner, Head of Frankfurt School Blockchain Center

Not too many.1) Tokens that are already live: Ether, Basic Attention Token.2) Tokens that may be very important, even if they are not live yet: digital euro, digital yuan, digital U.S. dollar, Libra, all kinds of tokenized assets and rights under the Liechtenstein Blockchain Act (coming into force in January 2020).


34.

Robert Schwertner, Influencer

In 2020 I am looking at the following projects:Basic Attention Token — I am lovin it! With Brave you have created a cool browser that I use every day. Chrome is so 2017, Brave is the future! And you get a token for surfing the internet. Chainlink I find cool. Also exciting are all projects that are listed on the Samsung Galaxy Wallet — e.g., Enjin.Ethereum is still exciting. Even in 2020, many startups work with this trend-setting blockchain, develop it further and increase its value.

And I regularly look at the rating of crypto projects of the Chinese government (CCID):EOS was ranked No. 1 in the last rating of Dec. 19, 2019. And rightly so, because EOS seems to be recovering again, its modifiable smart contracts are very practical for programmers, Ethereum is too rigid here, but it is still No. 2 in the Chinese evaluation.Cosmos (ATOM) is also extremely exciting, a network of many blockchains. It solves the scalability problem!


35.

Danny Scott, CEO of CoinCorner

I'm always watching for new developments on existing coins, or new coins in general. Libra obviously spiked an interest from people, and I actually covered this in a Medium post breaking it down, with my prediction that it will never launch.

36.

Lex Sokolin, Co-head of global fintech at ConsenSys

The most interesting metric for me to watch is the usage of programmable blockchains to build software. While assets like Bitcoin and other cyber commodities create compelling economic narratives and stories about power, they don’t tell us much about the future of how economies are built and operated. To that end, using ConsenSys software like Alethio, we can see the number of various functional calls that developers make using decentralized programs.

Are people moving money and paying each other? Are they creating collectible digital tokens, or trading some particular assets, or executing some arcane function? Looking through chains and into the activities that humans choose to turn into permissionless software is fascinating. It’s like looking into the inner workings of a giant clock, its gears clicking loudly into the night.

The more gears there are, the louder they click, the more composable they become, the larger and more significant the story they tell.Decentralized finance, and projects like MakerDAO, Compound, Set Protocol, Uniswap and others show what the future of financial manufacturing may look like.

We don’t have to imagine financial software written into the chain — it is already there. To me, those applications and next-layer solutions are the most compelling thing happening in financial technology innovation today.

Understanding them, and then assessing them through initiatives like Codefi’s DeFi score, focused on protocol risk and function, should be the main focus for people interested in the future of finance.


37.

Ulli Spankowski, Chief digital officer at Boerse Stuttgart

We look at coins from different perspectives. Examples are market acceptance, the regulatory structure, the technical design of the protocol and the custodianship. Furthermore, tax aspects and the classification as payment, utility or security token play an important role for us.



38.

Alex Tapscott, Co-founder of the Blockchain Research Institute

So as long as people don't misconstrue this as investment advice, the thing that I'm most interested in are ATOMs, which is the native token for the Cosmos network. Cosmos is a project that was bootstrapped and did a very small funding event in 2017 — and since then, has scaled into one of the biggest organic communities. I think what's really interesting about these protocols is that some of the ones that raised the most money have been able to spend freely on trying to attract people to the platform.

But the ones that are most successful are the ones that do so organically, where people are driven by the mission or they're attracted to it by the technology. So, we saw that with Ethereum in 2015–2017, and I think you are seeing it now with Cosmos and I think you'll see that continue to accelerate.

You know, if you go to the Cosmos landing page, you can see dozens of real, interesting projects that people are building — and they're building it because it's simply the best and most useful technology. And I should add, by the way, the disclosure that I do own ATOMs. So, I am talking my own book a little bit..


39.

Alexandra Tinsman, President of the NEM Foundation

I watch coins run by other titans in the industry, like Binance. They provide a contrast to more decentralized projects like Bitcoin and NEM. I’m interested in what’s happening with projects based in China, and I anticipate a wave of growth there in the next year or two.

I’m following Decred to see how its approach to governance is working. Ethereum’s sharding approach is also something worth following. And I’m paying attention to what’s trading on Japanese exchanges, since the Japanese community is especially knowledgeable about crypto.


40.

John Todaro, Director of TradeBlock

I closely watch large-cap altcoins such as Ether, as well as the privacy-oriented coins Zcash and Monero, as well as staking coins such as Tezos and Cosmos. Additionally, I follow stablecoins — whether that is the Libra project, DAI, USDC or others.


41.

Vladimir Tomko, Co-founder, CEO and game producer at Blockchain Cuties Universe

Coins I watch closely besides Bitcoin are: TRX, ETH, NEO, EOS, ENJ, KLAY, MATIC, BAT and MANA, with Libra and TON coming soon.

42.

Erik Voorhees, CEO of ShapeShift

ETH, EOS, ATOM, BNB, XMR/ZEC, MKR, and of course our new token, FOX, which enables free trading at ShapeShift!


43.

Whale Alert

Since Whale Alert covers the largest blockchains with a goal to expand to cover at least 99% of the value of all blockchain transactions, I try to keep up with as many existing and upcoming coins as possible.

44.

Alexander Zaidelson, CEO of Beam

I closely watch the developments in the privacy space — Zcash, Monero, Grin and of course Beam.

The UK has opened a contract worth £100,000 ($130,000) to procure software to identify when cryptocurrency is used to avoid paying taxes.In particular, HMRC is seeking the ability to cluster cryptocurrency transactions, identifying those linked to service providers such as mixing, gambling, and dark market services.

The contract, posted on January 17, notes the tool must track and trace Bitcoin, $BTC▼0.47% Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Tether, Litecoin, Ethereum, and Ethereum Classic — the latter two it unfortunately misspelled as “Ethereium.

”Preferential treatment is pledged to those seeking to develop additional functionality to analyze more private cryptocurrencies such as Monero, Zcash, and Dash.“Crypto assets, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, provide a means to transfer value between interacting parties,” reads the contract. “[…]

These services are increasingly used for a range of purposes, from international money transfers, sales of digital services, paying staff, and tax evasion and money laundering.

”If successfully implemented, the winning crypto-tracking solution would close HMRC’s “intelligence gaps” in use of cryptocurrency for illicit activity against the HMRC.

Tax agencies worldwide grapple with cryptocurrency

Last year, UK authorities reportedly demanded customer lists and transaction data from cryptocurrency exchanges operating locally, supposedly intent on recouping unpaid taxes from their users.

Around the same time, the US’ Internal Revenue Service sent more than 10,000 letters to cryptocurrency holders who’d sold, sent, received, or bought at least $20,000 worth of cryptocurrency between 2013 and 2015.

They were warned of penalties should they not correctly report their income or fail to pay tax on their cryptocurrency transactions. Those who received mail were asked to sign a statement confirming they’d done so correctly, under penalty of perjury.

HMRC might however be out of luck when it comes to working with more anonymous cryptocurrencies like Monero.In December, a Europol strategy analyst noted that even the top international authorities had struggled to track transactions made on the network.

About one-third of US-based small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) accept cryptocurrency as a payment for their goods and services, according to a survey commissioned by American insurer Hartford Steam Boiler (HSB), a subsidiary of German Munich Re.

NEWER COMPANIES ARE MORE CRYPTO-FRIENDLY

HSB’s survey found that newer companies are twice as likely to accept cryptocurrency payments and trade in digital credits.

Specifically, 47% of businesses accepting cryptocurrencies have been around for five years or less, compared to 21% of companies older than two decades.In general, the study carried out by Zogby Analytics showed that 36% of SMEs are crypto-friendly, and 59% of these companies had previously purchased cryptocurrency for their own use.

HSB vice president Timothy Zeilman argues that businesses enjoy the benefits that come with cryptocurrencies, including faster payments and lower fees. However, there are several risks to consider, especially in terms of cyber fraud and computer attacks.

HSB is up to date on the matter since it provides cyber insurance and services. The executive noted:

Cyber criminals follow the money and fraud can be a serious problem. A number of currency exchanges have been hacked or embezzled and millions of dollars were lost. Smaller businesses, especially those starting out, can’t afford to be cheated.

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According to Zeilman, cybercriminals use various schemes to break small businesses, including computer attacks, malware infections, and phishing techniques.Given that cryptocurrency exchanges operate in parallel with the banking system without interfering with it, they are prone to little regulation.

Thus, in the case of fraud issues, SMEs have to act on their own.Zeilman recommended:

Small business owners should learn all they can about the technology before accepting cryptocurrency. And make sure they have strong data security and insurance to protect against cyber fraud and financial loss.

ABOUT THE STUDY

The survey was commissioned by HSB and carried out by Zogby Analytics in October of last year. It involved 509 SMEs across the US.

Blockchain Company is closer to its beta launch of Blockabase! One of several apps for our Token Economy Ecosystem. Go see Blockabase.com , start adding urls as a very early adopter of almost anything you love or care about and get BASE! Our token for free, each time you submit urls.

Our Search Engine platform token is called BASE and is credited to your Blockabase account by proxy. You are rewarded BASE on every url you add and you are also rewarded BASE when people click, comment or vote on quality urls you have added.

You can import your bookmarks too! Adding urls to Blockabase is a bit like mining Bitcoin! But without all the complexity, anyone can submit urls to help power up Blocakbase.

Blockabase assigns synthetic ownership of the urls you have added for web discovery through our search engine for life! This means you could be making a passive income forever. Every url is unique and added on a first come basis. You can also add as many sub urls of a site you like or care about. Every bit of millions of information, on the entire web is associated with a url and thousands of new websites and platforms are being launched every day all over the world.

So What is Blockabase?

Blockabase ( a colloquial new term we coined for database) is a tokenized, incentivized, interactive and user generated search engine powered by humans + AI.  

Google which is still the greatest and most powerful search engine, makes an annual revenue of over $100 billion a year, harnesses all your data for its benefit and users except for publishers, get nothing! At the same time, AI is rapidly eliminating humans from the process of work and our ability to make a decent living. Plus, data surveillance of all your personal data is the new oil.

Blockabase will help you harness your data, so only you can decide whether you wish to monetize it! We believe the future of data should be under your full control of how you wish to share it, keep it, or monetize it. Whenever we utilize your data to show ads over our network, you will see the revenue share in your Blockabase, it's that simple! We have no interest whatsoever in selling your data, unless you expressly opt-in to monetize it over our platform when we enable such features.

As the world inevitably changes, we believe, it is not Universal Basic Income that will provide an income, as white and blue collar professionals lose their jobs significantly, up to 46% by only 2025 according to Oxford University research. Instead, we take the view, it will be the new Token Economy that provides an increasing source of wealth and meaningful income for humans going forward.

We believe Silicon Valley platforms will start to tokenize and reward users for powering up their utilities, leading to an entirely new global economy and user inclusivity dynamics towards 2030. 

Our BASE search engine utility token, will seek listings on several crypto exchanges, as we evolve through 2020 and any token rewards in your account will be distributed to wallets respectively at the end of 12 months or sooner.

What you currently experience on Blockabase, is just the very first embryonic MVP ( medium viable product) phase of our development.

Blockabase will aim to morph into a digital economy fit for purpose, where BASE the token, can be p2p exchanged for thousands of products and services discovered in Blockabase search engine and accepted my merchants all over the world using Blockabase for site discovery in competition with the likes of Google, Yahoo and Bing, whom we admire by the way. The only difference is, a new token economy is emerging and we aim to be a significant part of it, with you included. 

Blockabase also rewards users for Ads they view over our search engine and wider network. Blockamail, Blockaads, Blockashop and soon Blockapay, are all interoperable applications part of Blockabase network. While Bitcoin unfortunately struggles with a utility use case, Blockabase search engine is the utility use case, powered up from ground zero by you!

At this very early stage, there are still bugs and lots of things for our team to fix going forward. However, it works reasonably now as a medium viable product fit for your purpose to utilize.

There are millions of urls that can be added to Blockabase and and we've made it more engaging and gamified fun to interact with. There are lots and lots of new features coming to Blockabase soon, to give our users a robust experience, as we aim to capture a reasonable part of that $100 billion a year Google makes. We believe the value of our efforts, combined with your user collaboration, should naturally be reflected in the BASE token as we scale.

You can be a passive stakeholder too!

Its free to join and start earning rewards for submitting quality urls, and earning rewards when users comment, like and vote to rank urls you added. The current free user URL Add reward, is 10 BASE per url added. This value and other rewards will decrease or increase, as our governance determines its network growth and stimulant effect.

You can think of Blockabase like an economy where interest rates are determined, subject to growth, supply, or inflation. However when you upgrade and pay a modest annual fee of $50.00, you will be entitled to up to 5x all activity rewards over the platform.

Our Ads utility rewards you separately in your Blockabase account too when Blockaads utility kicks in anytime very soon.

So that’s the skinny for now!

Go tell your friends, mates and family, get on board early to get BASE! Don’t miss out again like most of us did on Bitcoin. Start mining URLs, by simply submitting sites, news, social media and any content with a url to Blockabase.com today... Get involved! 

Note* Like most reputable platforms, Blockabase fully reserves the right to remove any content it believes is not acceptable for its search engine.

2019 was the year organizations moved blockchain and cryptoassets “beyond the hype phase,” adopt the technology across real use cases, according to a report by KPMG. 

Indeed, last year saw the continued entrance of major firms into the realm of distributed ledger technology in sectors ranging from infrastructure and finance to transport and public policy.

In banking, one of the leading sectors for blockchain adoption, Swiss Bank UBS and Barclays began experimenting how the tech could be deployed to expedite back-office functions and settlement, amid estimates the industry could shave off US$20 billion in middleman costs. 

JP Morgan also entered the fray with JPM Coin, a token intended to facilitate transactions between institutional accounts. With more than 100 blockchain patents filed, meanwhile, Mastercard’s activity in the field led the payments monolith to become the third-biggest blockchain innovator worldwide. 

Examples across various sectors have included Walmart Canada deploying the world’s first blockchain-based freight and payment network; leading carmakers, including BMW and Daimler, exploring use cases in raw materials tracking and tokenization, and Starbucks teaming up with Microsoft, using the technology to trace its coffee “from bean to cup”.

Businesses like these are realizing the potentially powerful applications of blockchain and demonstrating how core tenets in decentralization and transparency can be applied— as one component of a wider technological confluence. 

More than 50 percent of global organizations now believe the technology represents a top-five strategic priority within the next two years.  “Business executives are leveraging the capabilities of blockchain and tokenized assets to spur an unprecedented level of innovation, differentiate themselves, drive new revenue models and retain market share, as well as to advance their strategies, systems, and processes,” said Arun Ghosh, US Blockchain Leader at KPMG. “In 2020, we anticipate adoption at scale given its ubiquitous and wide availability as organizations embed enterprise blockchain in their digital strategy and investments.

” According to Ghosh, the quickening pace of blockchain and cryptoasset adoption could be driven by six key trends. 

# 1 | Cryptoassets adoption led by MPC

One of the biggest challenges to cryptoasset adoption is that of custody— how assets are owned, stored, secured, transferred and accessed in decentralized environments. This area has so far lacked in both solutions and regulatory guidance. 

However, advances in multiparty computation technology (MPC), and more providers entering this sector will help overcome the custody challenge, enabling secure, highly-available wallet infrastructure for high-frequency traders and asset managers requiring instant access to their funds. 

# 2 | Public sector leaders to facilitate growth

The development and rising adoption of cryptoassets will be driven by the public sector, says Ghosh: “the race to integrate crypto into existing global financial institutions is very real.”Around the world, governments are anticipating the launch of central bank digital currencies (CBDC), to realize strategic and competitive advantages within the global trade systems.

Central banks in Asia and Europe, for example, are in the final stages of launching digital currencies for future payment systems and cross-border transactions, and KPMG expects resulting frameworks to anchor initiatives in the private sector. 

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# 3 | Interoperability to drive scale

There will be a shift from private-permissioned to interoperable blockchain implementations. As private blockchain implementations emerge, the next stage is integrating private and public blockchains in order to develop ecosystems and trade networks. Interoperability will make way for greater efficiencies across supply chains, enabling the integration of middle- and back-office processes and payment layers, for example.

“Given that blockchain is a cloud-first technology, this configuration of new, commercially-available distributed ledgers can serve as a ‘trust layer’ for existing and new data; drive accountability, reliability and traceability across ecosystems by validating and protecting stored data,” Ghosh says.

# 4 | Blockchain can enable trusted AI

With maturation of machine learning and AI investments, businesses can turn to blockchain to ensure data models are protected.The convergence of AI and blockchain will lead to “more success” in scaling the technology. Blockchain can enable trusted AI by authenticating and authorizing data models and outputs, by offering an end-to-end view of automation and decision engines, while ensuring data input authenticity, that models were never tampered with. 

# 5 | Blockchain for sustainability

KPMG and Ghosh believe blockchain could become a “central component” in the convergence of technology used to manage climate change. Decentralized, transparent data models enabled by the technology can house data transferred via IoT, and make it visible to a vast number of countries and regulators that are jointly monitoring and reporting om carbon emissions and rising sea levels, among other applications. 

# 6 | Zero-knowledge cryptography

Zero-knowledge systems will enable new forms of self-sovereignty. Rapid advances in cryptography are enabling the emergence of zero-knowledge trust systems, unlocking the potential for advanced data privacy use cases and for the creation of digital identities. 

Zero-knowledge systems and zero-knowledge proof cryptography are allowing participants of a network to control and verify or “prove” their data, identity or other characteristics without exposing underlying information.

The digital asset industry went through many ups and downs in 2019, and that’s without even taking prices into consideration. But let’s first address price. 2019 was a tale of two halves (first half of the year was good; the second half of the year was bad).

But price is fickle, impossible to forecast, and a lagging indicator. Instead, this piece will focus on the bigger picture themes and narratives that shaped 2019, and what we expect in 2020 and beyond. 
2019 Recap: What we got right / What we got wrong in Digital AssetsFirst, let’s look back quickly at our 2019 predictions, in digital assets and how close we got:

 

Prediction #1: Valuation metrics for crypto will become more mainstream

FALSE. Crypto valuations has made a lot of progress this past year , including:

 

• Messari’s efforts to create standardized reporting
• An incredible working group of crypto analysts that are publishing mainstream valuation metrics
• Numerous independent sites posting usable metrics (like this and this)

However, the masses have certainly not caught on yet. We rarely see crypto valuations cited in mainstream media like we do with equities and debt.  

 

Prediction #2: The ICO “Distressed” opportunity will emerge

FALSE. We expected there to be M&A, tender offers, activist campaigns (we even unsuccessfully attempted one) and just plain distressed value investing (like buying tokens where cash value in Treasury was greater than token value). But none of these have materialized yet.

This is partially due to lack of transparency from token projects, but is mainly due to a lack of capital into funds dedicated to these strategies - the legal bills alone will be massive. There is a still a huge opportunity here, and only a select group of former Wall Street-run crypto funds are positioned to take advantage of these dislocations.

 

Prediction #3 Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash will not become a Medium of Exchange

TRUE.  Thus far (at least in developed countries). Stablecoins have and will become mediums of exchange, whereas Bitcoin will continue to be a store of value, and other select digital assets will simply be quasi-equity like assets. We believe this can change in the far distant future once tax consequences are loosened, mobile “banking”-like apps become more user-friendly, and volatility subsides. As such, Bitcoin’s progression will be SoV->MoE->UoA.

 

Prediction #4: Value accretion will switch from service providers to applications

MIXED. On the one hand, equity valuations of crypto service providers (exchanges, miners, data providers, trade systems, custodians, OTC desks) have been trending down because the market has way too many service providers relative to the people/firms that they service. On the other hand, we still haven’t seen many “killer apps” develop.

This shift is starting to happen - it’s just taking longer than expected and there are fewer success stories. For example, companies like Brave, Flexa, HXRO, and Lolli are growing users at a rapid clip and have increased their equity valuations, but this is still a small sample size of everyday crypto apps that have penetrated the market. 

 

Prediction #5: The market will separate into “Haves versus Have nots”

TRUE. We’ve been pretty vocal on this topic, and it has been quite accurate. There are far more losers than winners in 2019, and this has largely been based on themes.

Bitcoin aside, most of the legacy decentralized digital assets that took the market by storm in 2017 have largely died out or moved out of favor with the possibility of never recovering, while new up-and-coming companies that utilize tokens have moved into favor. We think this trend will continue. 

 

Prediction #6: ETH will underperform ETH-related tokens

TRUE. We made this argument pretty succinctly, and took a lot of heat for it from Ethereum fans, but we were pretty accurate. Ethereum is one of the most important developments in all of crypto, with so much of the ecosystem built on top of, or connected to the Ethereum blockchain.

But the ETH token itself has failed to capture this value (negative 2019 return), while tokens of projects that are derivatives of the ecosystem (MKR, SNX, LINK, etc) have performed much better. 

 

What else happened in 2019 affecting the Crypto Markets?

Aside from our predictions, 2019 added several new narratives that affected the crypto markets:

Bitcoin officially entered the Global Macro spotlight 

• The Federal Reserve, Treasury Secretary, US President, G7 and every major global central bank talked about Bitcoin, and now every macro hedge fund is involved in some capacity. 

• Geopolitical instability (Venezuela, Argentina, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Iran, etc) has increased use of Bitcoin in these locations.

• China introduced its own Digital Currency (DCEP), that led to a series of copycats from other Central Banks. This will lead to tighter controls on monetary policy and flow of capital within borders.

• Facebook’s Libra project woke up US regulators creating a short-term negative effect for digital assets,  but will lead to a long-term positive outcome on adoption and interest.

• Bitcoin dominance grew from 53% to 70% in 2019 (meaning Bitcoin represents 70% of the value of all digital assets). The “Have Nots” took the brunt of this Bitcoin explosion, and will likely continue to fall versus Bitcoin, but new versions of digital assets backed by real assets (like the ArCoin US Treasury token) are on their way which should help the overall asset class grow.

Rise of innovative token uses cases beyond currency 

• In fact, we think the word “cryptocurrency” is one of the most misleading terms, because Bitcoin is the only true “currency” while every other use case of blockchain and tokens is completely different and potentially more innovative.  

• In 2019, we’ve seen the rise of digital contracts:  DeFi, equity-like features with a burn model (i.e. LEO), traditional bond settlements, legal contracts, voting rights, and more. 

• On the horizon, even more interesting tokens are on their way, like a token representing future interests in NBA player salaries (thank you Spencer Dinwiddie).

Infrastructure Boom 

• Newcomers to crypto, but powerhouses in the traditional world (Fidelity Digital Assets, State Street, Bakkt / ICE, the CME, State Street), are now challenging the crypto incumbents (Coinbase, Binance, Deribit, Bitmex).

• The rapid rise of derivatives exchanges has come with consequences, as we’ve seen the “tail wagging the dog” where futures markets drive spot prices, leading to market manipulation.

• The US has been left behind, as Binance and others have officially shut out US customers after skirting the law for years on the KYC/verified account front. 
• 
  

Next week, we'll return to our regular format of "That's Our Two Satoshis". To read of 2020 predictions, click here.


And That’s Our Two Satoshis! Thanks for reading everyone!   Questions or comments, just let us know.  

 The Arca Portfolio Management TeamJeff Dorman, CFA - Chief Investment OfficerKatie Talati - Head of ResearchHassan Bassiri, CFA - PM / AnalystSasha Fleyshman -  Trader  Wes Hansen -  Head of Trading & Operations

  To learn more or talk to us about investing in digital assets and cryptocurrencycall us now at (424) 289-8068.

We believe 2020 will be a pivotal year for digital assets. While we will not make predictions on prices, instead, we will focus on a few themes that we believe will emerge and drive the majority of investment gains.

Prediction #1: Thematic investing will drive crypto performance in the following areas: Rewards, Structured Tokens, Staking, and DeFi. 

• Rewards - Honey was recently acquired for $4 billion by Paypal. Why? Because people love rewards.  Crypto companies like Lolli are trying to mimic this in crypto by offering BTC rewards for shopping while Brave Browser gives people who watch ads rewards in its native BAT token. Trading will become more “gamified” (like HXRO and Bitmex leaderboards) where you can earn rewards for your efforts, and Coinbase offers “Earn” where you get paid to learn about crypto. 

• Structured tokens - “Tokenomics” refers to the features built into a specific token that help the token accrue value. For example, some have high inflation, others are effectively deflationary (buybacks). But a new crop of tokens are now being structured in ways where they almost have to go higher in price for the ecosystem to work. Tokens like Synthetix (SNX) are a good example, where you have to own SNX just to utilize the system, but you can’t very easily sell your SNX or leave the ecosystem. These “Hotel California” tokens (where you can check in but can’t check out) will likely outperform in 2020, but are difficult to own due to liquidity issues and counterparty risk.

• Staking - In a nutshell, staking is a mechanism to reach network consensus while simultaneously earning a yield (here’s a quick primer on Proof-of-Stake vs Proof-of-Work).  While staking is not new, several exchanges (most notably Binance and Coinbase) have recently made it much easier for digital asset owners to stake their tokens and earn rewards.  This fits in with the “rewards” theme above, and should continue in 2020. 

• DeFi vs CeFi - Decentralized Finance is still tiny, but it is growing quickly and will likely be a major growth engine in 2020. Conversely, a ton of value has already accrued to Centralized Finance (CeFi) companies (Coinbase, Binance, Celsius, Deribit, Bitmex) and this market is getting very saturated. We believe DeFi will be the “Growth Sector” of 2020, while CeFi will be a “Value Sector”. As such, a blind basket of DeFi tokens will likely do very well regardless of which tokens you own, whereas in CeFi only one or two companies will win out and grow at the expense of others. 

Prediction #2: Sports and other live events will play a huge part in Blockchain’s success as the “live, in game experience” will be enhanced.

• Tickets - Tickets to events used to be mementos; now they represent the digital identities of fans and can be used to enhance the in-game experience.

• Voting - Sports teams will use tokens to give fans voting rights (like Juventus and the Sacramento Kings).

• Players and Contracts - Professional players (like Spencer Dinwiddie) will create a new form of “Fantasy sports”, but we’ll also likely see it in the college ranks as well. 

• Live Music - Warner Bros invested in Dapper Labs this year which presumably will drive music engagement (not just sporting events).

Aside from the factors that affect investment returns, we believe the following narratives will unfold which will affect the general crypto market ecosystem.

 

• Moving fast and breaking things doesn't work. This is the biggest difference between finance and technology, and crypto finds itself squarely in the middle.  But as we’ve seen with Facebook’s Libra hurdles with Congress, in finance, you can’t win with “ask for forgiveness, not permission”. This is why companies who focus on regulation and compliance (like Arca) will emerge victorious in 2020 and beyond. 

• More mergers between pick & shovel companies.  As mentioned above, there are too many service providers. And while some will grow, most will be acquired or assumed, often at distressed levels. This is already playing out, as the once mighty Circle continues to fire sale its assets. 

• Existing companies will utilize tokens. We remain very bullish on real companies that apply token models to applications that already work, rather than newcomers building applications from scratch.  Quite simply, it is easier to introduce a token to a community that already exists than it is to build a community. For example, Wikipedia could benefit from a crowd-sourced token, Twitter could introduce a token model that is advantageous for active users, and Starbucks could capitalize on the rewards theme via a digital asset.  JP Morgan may even finally launch their “JPM Coin”. Existing, non-blockchain companies will find ways to issue tokens within their equity / debt cap structures. In doing so, these companies will create new revenue line-items while simultaneously enhancing community engagement. This will be incredibly important as the world enters a recession or a low growth environment.

• The Bitcoin halving, while telegraphed and understood, will still be a huge driver of digital asset growth.  While we believe in the “efficient market” theory, we don’t believe the Bitcoin halving is priced in simply because 99% of the world is not involved in crypto yet.  The market may be efficient within the crypto echo-chamber, but there is far more money yet to come into crypto than what is already here, and if supply reduces at the same time demand increases, price will rise… quickly.

And finally, while what happens within the crypto ecosystem is great for those already in the echo-chamber, the future of digital assets still relies more on growth and adoption from beyond the walls.  Below are the narratives that I believe will most strongly push “no-coiners” into the digital asset realm in 2020 and beyond.

 

• Generational Theft:  From climate change, to central bank debt-fueled “growth”, to “Ok Boomer”, younger generations have had enough of kicking the can down the road at the expense of their futures.  This theme will only get louder.

• Data Privacy:  The FANGs won the 2010s. But they won so demonstrably that there is now a loud and growing pushback over data collection and privacy. The path forward for many consumers is to loosen the FANG’s grip, which can be achieved via decentralization. This anti-FANG crusade may even seep its way into government.

• Digitizing Everything: Money is the last thing to be digitized, and moving money seamlessly from one app to another without a bank or middleman will just seem obvious… soon. Lots of things seem obvious after the fact. 

• Nowhere Else to Turn:  Investors will begin to realize how few opportunities there are in traditional asset classes, and will stop buying worthless assets that promise growth in favor of new technologies that are actually growing.  When (if) the music stops for equities, they will turn to protection of assets rather than growth of assets.  To protect against systemic banking risk and/or currency devaluation, crypto will be a choice. In 2011/2012, every smart investor tried to play the “European bank collapse / double-dip recession” theme by shorting equities, buying sovereign CDS or buying gold -- none of these worked.  In 2011/2012, Bitcoin was barely a thing -- now it is, and investors know it.

• Avoid Melting Ice Cubes:  Most large financial institutions are late to the party. As mutual funds moved to ETFs, as older financial advisors moved to robo-advising, and as fee-based businesses moved to no fees --  giant financial institutions will continue to realize that it is better to be in the growth industry than to be the melting ice cube.  No asset class has more growth potential than blockchain.

• Distrust of Financial Institutions by Millenials: Though this narrative has been around for the past five or so years, millennials continue to shun traditional financial institutions and are looking towards fintech alternatives.  The top 10 finance apps are NOT traditional financial firms.  As this trend intensifies, crypto will benefit.

We’ll see how many of these predictions turn out to be true in 2020. To learn more or talk to us about investing in digital assets and cryptocurrency, call us now at (424) 289-8068 

Investing in blockchain technology may be the next big thing over the next few years, but opportunities accessible to most retail investors, though increasing, are still quite limited.

This isn’t the case, however, regarding opportunities for well-heeled HNW clients, whose universe of choices is far broader.

These options include the offerings of various private equity and venture capital firms channeling money into more than 1,200 blockchain startups from Silicon Valley on the West Coast to Silicon Alley in New York. Access to equity in these nascent ventures and fledgling companies—and ultimately, potentially in consolidated entities and IPOs —is increasing rapidly for accredited investors through more than 800 institutional blockchain investment firms whose vehicles include venture funds, private equity and hedge funds.  

Blockchain technology, which was created in the 1990s and became the transmission vehicle for Bitcoin when it started in 2009, is a revolutionary technology that can be adapted for use in just about any digital application involving record keeping, as its immutability fosters the creation of a perfect audit trail enabling transparent transactions with high accountability.

Evolving uses include establishing provenance, security exchanges, identity verification, financial services, gaming, lotteries, job seeking, e-commerce, digital transaction solutions, online value transfer and non-traditional monetary solutions.  

Many of the applications under development are focused on facilitating P2P uses of the internet rather than relying on centralized (traditional) financial institutions that profit from serving as intermediaries. These P2P uses are part of what’s known as the DeFi movement.

The terrain of potential investments in startups headed down these entrepreneurial roads is growing under the industry’s feet, and opportunities are expanding apace for qualified HNW clients who want to get into blockchain technology investing in the current early stages.

The focuses of some of the more prominent among firms gathering investment capital include funding blockchain application development through VC and private equity. A key player in this terrain is Pantera Capital, which started as a hedge fund in 2003 and in 2013, changed its focus to blockchain.

Pantera, which aims to stimulate blockchain-application development and innovation, has a large and widely diversified investment portfolio of more than 35 companies.

Managers of some blockchain investment funds are revolutionizing private equity by selling small pieces of their enterprises, making them accessible to a broad spectrum of investors with varying levels of resources.

The first firm to do this was Blockchain Capital, a VC firm that has issued pieces of its fund in the form tradable tokens called BCAPs, which entitle holders to some of the fund’s profits. (In the broader blockchain world, such tokens are being used to represent a broad range of assets, including fine art.) Since its inception in 2018, Blockchain Capital has financed about 70 companies, protocols and tokens.

Also, some longstanding, name-brand VC firms are marshaling growing ownership portfolios of blockchain startups. Prominent among these is Andreessen Horowitz.  

The firm has not only has a 20-plus and growing portfolio of companies in wide range of blockchain pursuits but has also recently announced a mentoring role in the form of a blockchain-based startup course whose live sessions in Silicon Valley will also be recorded for subsequent downloads. 

The course will include material on existing applications, development tools, regulatory compliance and fundraising.

Advisors who develop a basic understanding of blockchain investment avenues (few have done so) can alert HNW clients to these investment avenues. But the universe of firms seeking capital is expanding so fast that it can be difficult for even knowledgeable and adroit advisors to navigate the growing cadre of firms and stay abreast of changes in the field.  

When encountering resistance from clients regarding blockchain’s investment potential, advisors could effectively liken blockchain to the internet in its early stages—a relatable analogy for baby boomers. Though basic blockchain technology is free, so was the embryonic internet when Google and Amazon started up with what were essentially just applications.

Moreover, risk management for blockchain is now a rapidly developing area, in which expertise is being touted by digital asset managers such as Darma , a firm that’s bullish on the concept of Web. 3.0, which would embody the DeFi and hence, financial decentralization of the current web.Specifically, what will happen in this digital gold rush is anybody’s guess.

About the only thing that’s certain is that picking likely winners from the multitude of entities—and the firms investing in them on behalf of clients—is a daunting challenge reminiscent of the chaotic early years of the internet.

Advisors getting into this realm would do well to keep in mind that responsible advice to clients requires no small amount of effort to catch up and stay current.  

Eric. C. Jansen, ChFC, founder, president and chief investment officer of Finivi Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisory firm based in Westborough, Mass., is the author of numerous articles on blockchain. He is the founder of blocksocial.com, a blockchain technology media site.

• Total value in USD on staking platforms on the verge of breaching $7 billion USD.
• Eos, Tezos, Atom and Algo lead the standings with over $500 million USD staked in each platform.

After a year of rocketing growth, 2020 looks set to push investors into staking platforms even further as latest reports show, According to Staking Rewards, a staking platform data aggregator, the total staked amount in dollars currently stands at $6.961 Billion USD, with seven of the top ten coins all registering over $100 million USD in staked coins.

However, the research conducted by Crypto Differ excludes Tron (TRX), which stakes 22% of the total ~1 billion USD worth of TRX.

Staking allows cryptocurrency holders to earn passive income by storing their coins on protocols designed to payout interest.

Staked platforms nears $7 billion in USD valuation

The research from Crypto Differ places the total staked amount in dollars at $6.961 billion USD, excluding TRX, with the push to $7 billion USD set to happen sooner rather than later.

Staking cryptocurrencies have gained traction in the past year as a number of exchanges introduced zero fee staking such as Binance Staking Protocol which launched a free staking platform for Tezos at the end of last year.


10 BTC & 20,000 Free Spins for every player in mBitcasino’s Winter Cryptoland Adventure! 

CryptoDiffer@CryptoDifferSTATE OF THE STAKING

According to the @StakingRewards USD value locked in staking approaches 7 billion USD, while the Staking Market Cap (valuation of all projects that have staking mechanism) is currently at 11.2 billion USD.

MORE https://t.me/cryptodiffer/1788 …



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The market capitalization of staking cryptocurrencies currently stands at $11 billion dollars, which shows over 60% of the total cap is held in staking protocols. The top seven coins –which hold at least $100 million USD – including EOS, Tezos, Cosmos, Algorand, Dash, Synthetix and NEM, hold a combined $4.5 billion of the total ~$7 billion staked, representing approx. 64% of the total.

Four coins hold over $3 billion USD

While the field is growing at an astronomical pace, four of the top staking projects seem to be controlling much of the market with ~$4 billion staked across the four crypto projects. Eos (EOS) leads the pack with $1.822 billion USD staked, representing a quarter of the total amount staked.

Tezos (XTZ), Cosmos (ATOM) and Algorand (ALGO) complete the list of project with over $500 million USD staked with $832 million USD, $771 million and $515 million staked respectively.

“We calculated the ratio of staked coins to the circulating supply as well. The leaders are Cosmos (98.6%), Livepeer (95.6%), Synthetix (88.3%), Kava(86%) and Tezos (85.8%).” – StakingRewards.com on the 2020 staking report.

However, there remains questions of the exclusion of Tron (TRX) from the list of staking projects as explained by enthusiast and community member, Mike McCarthy. The eleventh largest crypto has a total of $329 million USD staked, as at time of writing representing approx. 22% of its total market capitalization.

Mike McCarthy@MikeNerdUK#TRON $TRX was overlooked in this report. Let's fix that.

As I type this - the current USD value of $TRX staked is $329million, making it the 5th highest total staked blockchain.

For comparison - On Sept 22nd 2019 total TRX staked was $148million

Or my maths could be wrong



https://twitter.com/CryptoDiffer/status/1216791600157941762 …CryptoDiffer@CryptoDifferSTATE OF THE STAKING

According to the @StakingRewards USD value locked in staking approaches 7 billion USD, while the Staking Market Cap (valuation of all projects that have staking mechanism) is currently at 11.2 billion USD.


MORE

  

https://t.me/cryptodiffer/1788 …



349:31 PM - Jan 13, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy

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The field of staking is just taking off and this year looks to provide a larger market for staking products. Can the market breach $10 billion in 2020?Coingape is committed to following the highest standards of journalism, and therefore, it abides by a strict editorial policy.

While CoinGape takes all the measures to ensure that the facts presented in its news articles are accurate.

Disclaimer The views, opinions, positions or strategies expressed by the authors and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, positions or strategies of CoinGape.

Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.

Bitcoin isn’t exactly en vogue in 2020, but its underlying technology (blockchain) is apparently still cool.At least, that’s according to employment service LinkedIn, which listed “blockchain” as tech’s most sought after “hard skill” this year.

A LinkedIn blog published last week notes that “blockchain” is the most in-demand skill in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, France, and Germany — more popular than cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and UX design.




“Blockchain has emerged from the once shadowy world of cryptocurrency to become a business solution in search of problems,” said LinkedIn. “Which means that you don’t have to be in financial services to be seeking new hires who have background and expertise in putting blockchain to use.

”The Microsoft-owned company then urged recruiters to start familiarizing themselves with how “blockchain” works and what its perceived benefits are.“[…] Companies seem to be saying that the potential [of blockchain] is worth the gamble,” LinkedIn continued.

“Blockchain has become a line of business for a who’s who of the corporate world — IBM, Oracle, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft (LinkedIn’s parent company), Amazon, and American Express, to name just a few.”

LinkedIn says devs should learn Solidity to work in blockchain

LinkedIn explains that there are two different kinds of skills: hard and soft.Hard skills are those that pertain to an employee’s aptitude for executing specific tasks, mostly technical abilities and specialized knowledge.

For software developers, proficiency in the C++ programming language would be a “hard” skill.Soft skills relate to the way in which those employees perform those tasks.

How one behaves, how they think, and their cognitive skills are all examples of soft skills.

While soft skills are difficult to measure, and perhaps harder to learn, LinkedIn did offer some advice to those looking to break into blockchain this year: learn the programming language used to write Ethereum smart contracts, Solidity.

In November last year, Hard Fork reported that job vacancy site Indeed had noted decreasing candidate interest in blockchain-related roles, but that employer demand in the industry had skyrocketed.

So, while it might be relatively difficult to make money from investing in or trading cryptocurrency this year, working with its underlying tech still seems mighty lucrative — for now.

Bitcoin price (BTC) increased over 10% over the past week, so it didn’t take long for the usual crypto Twitter suspects to start screaming that they are all bullish now. Even I saw some bullish momentum as outlined in last week's analysis, but have we seen the bottom yet?

Or is there more downside to come before we resume a bull trend?




Daily crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com

The monthly MACD is bearish

BTC USD monthly chart. Source: TradingViewWorking backward through various time frames, a look at the Moving Average Divergence Convergence (MACD) shows it crossed bearishly on Dec. 1 and the first red candle on the histogram was printed.Bitcoin has never seen a single candle before changing the bias on the MACD in its entire history.

As it’s one of the most widely used indicators for momentum trading, this indicates that there is bound to be a longer downward period than most traders would like to admit.  However, one positive that is worth taking note of is that the last bullish phase was the shortest the MACD has seen on Bitcoin, just 6 months of green before flipping red.

As such, speculating on how much longer we could expect a bear market for is difficult. If these phases are getting smaller and smaller the optimist in me suggests 4 months before we see a true bottom and reversal, which would put the pivot around April 1, 2020.

The monthly Bollinger Bands 

BTC USD BB monthly chart. Source: TradingViewUsing a combination of the Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator and the monthly volume for Bitcoin, it’s impossible to ignore how much volume has dropped off over the last 2 years. This can be interpreted in many ways.

Some may view breakouts in these conditions as very short term pumps, as there’s no real interest in the asset, or some may see it as a time to be greedy when others are fearful and start accumulating.  I’m off the view, that there’s no interest in Bitcoin, therefore the price movements we’re witnessing are short term pumps as whales continue to offload their bags as they wait for the bottom.  

The moving average (MA) of the BB shows $7,100 as critical support for Bitcoin. Should the price fall below $7,100 and this price level flips to resistance, we can then expect the price of Bitcoin to slowly make its way towards the support of the BB which is currently $2,500-$3,200 depending on your BB settings.  

I see the bottom BB support at $3,200. However, I don’t believe we will get this low. The support on the BB is gradually getting higher by the month. If it continues at this trajectory, the support could be as high as $3,800 by April 1, 2020.    

This to me is a plausible target date for the bottom since the upcoming halving is expected in May, and I’m not the only person that shares this view. Twitter user @22loops called the 2019 bottom with astonishing accuracy last year, and he’s at again with his new year's tweet that puts Bitcoin price at around $3,797.

Why Bitcoin price isn’t bullish just yet: the weekly BB rejection

BTCUSD weekly chart. Source: TradingViewMoving over to the weekly BB, we can see where Bitcoin faltered last week. It was rejected precisely at the MA of $8,462 leaving the digital asset in the lower part of the Bollinger Bands. 

Therefore, until Bitcoin flips the MA to support, there’s no real reason to be bullish just yet.

The support here shows $6,330 as the last stronghold for Bitcoin before beginning to accept the likelihood of a sub-$4,000 Bitcoin price. However, should Bitcoin find itself on another run, breaking past the $10,000 barrier doesn’t seem to be where the issue is, but slightly higher around $10,500 seems to be where we’d expect to see BTC struggle. 

Currently, both of these scenarios are too early to call, but with that being said, the weekly MACD is definitely giving a reason for the bulls to be excited.

Bullish momentum is returning to the MACD

BTCUSD weekly RSI chart. Source: TradingViewWhilst I’m a big fan of following the weekly MACD as a very reliable indicator for Bitcoin, there is one element that I can’t overlook in its current setup.

If the Bitcoin price continues to stay in its current range for another 2-3 weeks, the MACD line is set to cross bullish.  However, the positioning around the zero line doesn’t look too hot. If we take a look at the last 2 bullish crosses, they occurred at - 472 and -899 with the latter being the cross that had more momentum.  

The cross at -472 resulted in some bullish momentum, but shortly after, the Bitcoin price fell again, and it crossed into a bear trend.

What is concerning here, is that should Bitcoin cross bullish on the weekly MACD, it’s likely to occur somewhere around -200 below the zero line. But what does that mean for the next bullish move? 

History tells us, that perhaps it’s too early to be screaming “Bitcoin bull run” from the rooftops just yet, and this is further echoed by the rather weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, which is currently only showing a reading of 46.53 on the weekly timeframe.

The daily charts, however, are starting to tell a story of what to expect when you combine all 4 indicators mentioned in this analysis.  

Is the daily timeframe bullish or bearish?

BTCUSD daily chart. Source: TradingViewAbove is what I see as a short setup. The Bitcoin price is at the top of the BB. The RSI is overbought, and the volume is declining, however, volume is typically thinner at the weekends. The last thing I’d look at is for the MACD to cross down.

At present, the MACD is still strong and is yet to show signs of crossing down.  If there’s a decline in the price, the MACD will start to cross down, and from here I’d be looking at the BB MA as my target price which is $7,400; and this target I feel is realistic due to the gap left on the CME chart. 



BTCUSD daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe CME is showing a gap at $7,685. Whilst this is a very tight gap that some may argue nearly closed last week, the fact remains it is there on the charts for all to see.   Closing this gap would most certainly force the daily MACD to cross bearish, and potentially end the bullish momentum for the price of Bitcoin.

Bearish scenario

If the CME gap fills, and Bitcoin continues to fall from $7,865, then the levels of support to watch would be $7,400. If this level fails to hold, the monthly MA on the Bollinger Bands shows that $7,100 is the price to defend. If both these levels hold, the last chance saloon for Bitcoin is $6,800 before the hodler doomsday scenarios start playing out, and from here I’d be looking for another MACD bear to bull cycle before being bullish again. 

Bullish scenario

Not much has changed since last week. The daily and weekly MACD are both bullish and should Bitcoin continue on this path the key resistance that must be broken remains at $8,500. Breaking this level would change the path of Bitcoin massively, opening up much larger leaps in price towards $10,500-$11,000 levels.

That being said, 2-3 weeks of flat price action is equally bullish for Bitcoin in the medium term.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of @officiallykeith and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.

Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Dutch fintech company BUX has bought Amsterdam-based social cryptocurrency exchange Blockport for an undisclosed amount in a bid to spark interest from young European investors.

BUX says the move will help address “the investing needs of European millennials.

”The fintech firm plans to rename the platform BUX Crypto, and wants to make it available to users in the nine European countries where BUX is currently active.

Blockport last year announced that it was temporarily closing down, citing a lack of funding, following a failed security token offering.

The revamped platform is currently undergoing beta tests with a group of clients, and will launch in the first quarter of 2020, BUX said in a statement.

The company will also register the platform with the Dutch central bank, and will seek to retain key Blockport employees.

BUX, which launched in 2014, claims to have over two million users across Europe, and offers short-term, leveraged trading via its BUX X app. Its BUX Zero app, meanwhile, allows customers to make commission-free investing.

The company has raised USD 35 million from the likes of Holtzbrinck Ventures, Velocity Capital, Orange Growth Capital and Initial Capital.

Nick Bortot, the BUX CEO and founder, said that his company’s customers “have long expressed interest in investing in cryptocurrency.”Watch the latest reports by Block TV.


He added,

“We have been presented with an opportunity to bring on a committed and enthusiastic team that aligns clearly with our mission at BUX. This mission is to help young Europeans do more with their money.”

Blockport said,

“We have found a great partner to launch our platform with and that the outlook is very promising.”

Blockport also stated that BUX was a “bigger player,” and Blockport will extend BUX product line with their cryptocurrency investment platform.Bortot said that the deal would also allow BUX users to access a range of financial assets and markets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP.

BUX says it “welcomes new regulatory requirements in the Netherlands and across Europe,” claiming new rules will “help clear the field of those who chose not to operate with transparency and heighten the reputation, responsibility and integrity of the industry.

”As reported, major crypto derivatives exchange Deribit is moving from the Netherlands to Panama due to the regulatory pressure.

The reason behind it is that the Netherlands will most likely adopt a strict implementation of new EU regulations (5AMLD), which would mean that Deribit has to demand an extensive amount of information from the current and future customers.

With Brexit less than a month away, crypto firms may face a new set of challenges--and opportunities.

Though many believed that the day would never come, Brexit is now less than a month away after being approved by the UK’s parliament last month–and though, as the Wall Street Journal reported, “the U.K. will keep its practical ties to the EU until at least the end of 2020,” preparations are already underway across the board.

While the change may not have an acute effect on firms that operate internally within the UK, UK-based companies that operate internationally are currently seeking pathways to continue their business operations without a hitch–and it really doesn’t get any more international than crypto.

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Vlad Miller, chief executive officer of the Ethereum Express Company, which describes itself as the ‘world’s first community-driven ecosystem on the blockchain’ told Finance Magnates that cryptocurrency, as part of the UK’s fintech industry (allegedly one of the fastest-growing UK sectors), “may face some problems after Britain leaves the EU.

”Specifically, Miller cited a September study entitled the “Brexit Preparation Survey” by Innovate Finance, which showed that 43 percent of respondents–who were members of the UK’s “FinTech community”–believe that “passporting, cross border transactions, and servicing EU clients will be the areas most affected by Brexit.”




Source: “Brexit Preparation Survey” by Innovate Finance

Additionally, 17 percent of the survey’s respondents are considering moving to a different jurisdiction, while 23 percent of respondents “would appreciate additional information from the government about trade.

”Therefore, while it can be argued that the fintech sector–and the cryptocurrency sector more specifically–are fairly fast-moving and agile industries, Brexit will bring challenges, many of them unknown.

However, with less than a month until Brexit’s scheduled commencement, how are UK- and EU-based cryptocurrency companies preparing for the split?

How could Brexit affect crypto companies’ internal and external operations? And where will the split be felt most acutely?

Customer interactions with crypto companies affected by Brexit likely won’t change very much

Danial Daychopan, chief executive officer of UK-based crypto finance company Plutus, said that he believes that the primary impact of Brexit on crypto companies will likely affect a company’s internal operations rather than its interactions with customers.





Danial Daychopan, chief executive officer of UK-based crypto finance company Plutus.“I do not believe there will be much of an impact on how users interact with companies and products,” Daychopan told Finance Magnates.

Rather, “the main brunt for the end-consumer is the price as a result of potential tariff changes on imports and exports; however, as a purely digital service, these effects are greatly reduced.”And indeed, Daychopan sees Brexit as an opportunity:

“FinTech companies that are flexible in offering financial services for both sides of the English Channel actually have great potential to thrive,” he said, adding that for companies like his own, “the ability to conveniently exchange between currencies or interact with cross-border cryptocurrencies will prove hugely beneficial for consumers.”

Danial Daychopan@DDhopn

A €340 invoice paid via wire transfer to Europe took 24 hours and cost £31.20 in FX & fees. A larger invoice using crypto to a service provider in Europe arrived in minutes and it cost fraction of a cent.

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Ollie Smith, chief executive officer of Card Accounts, a UK-based payment service reviewing company, echoed Daychopan’s sentiments: “in my opinion, Brexit will have little impact on crypto-payments for British and European Union customers…as most transactions will continue to be processed as SEPA payments, there should be little disruption to trading volumes between Britain and EU states.”

Banking and regulatory issues could be exacerbated by the split

However, at the same time, Danial Daychopan pointed out that “banking has always been an issue for crypto companies in the UK and in Europe, especially those who operate a multi-currency platform; hurdles are expected for them;” in other words, banking problems that existed for crypto companies pre-Brexit could be exacerbated by post-Brexit regulations.

To avoid possible complications, companies that wish to continue operating in both the UK and the EU may have to take steps to ensure that adequate regulatory requirements are met.

Vlad Miller told Finance Magnates that for some UK-based companies, staying operational in the European Union may mean “[transferring] or [opening] offices in European countries, as well as to [obtaining] a license in order to carry out financial activities in this economic zone,” particularly if those companies happen to be exchanges, or happen to partake in “crowdfunding and other activities that involve money transactions.”




Vlad Miller, chief executive officer of the Ethereum Express Company.

“Many companies are already considering the option of obtaining [licenses] to provide financial services in an EU member state,” Miller continued, “for example, in the Netherlands, Malta, or Ireland, in order to maintain access to markets throughout the EU.”


Indeed, there have already been reports of certain UK-based crypto companies pre-emptively establishing offices in the EU as a preparatory move for Brexit. 

Reuters reported that cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, which is headquartered in the United States and has offices in the UK, opened an office in Dublin, Ireland, to prepare for Brexit all the way back in October of 2018.

At the time, Reuters wrote that Coinbase was “joining the growing ranks of banks and financial firms with major British businesses developing European Union outposts as Britain’s exit from the bloc looms.”

UK-based companies must stay abreast of changing regulations abroad, but could find themselves in a more flexible regulatory environment at home

Additionally, Miller pointed out that “there is some uncertainty about user data protection and potential restrictions that may apply to data transferred from the EU to the UK as a result of the fact that the UK will no longer be part of the GDPR regime.

”Therefore, “organizations must keep abreast of recent developments and consult with law companies to avoid unpleasant incidents.”On the other hand, however, it’s possible that cryptocurrency companies could find themselves in a more relaxed regulatory situation within the UK after the split.

In Danial Daychopan’s eyes, “the UK has always recognised the importance of FinTech and thankfully encouraged innovation within this sector.

By decoupling from the EU, we may find the government is able to implement more lenient laws and regulations that allow crypto companies to thrive. It will be far easier for the UK to pass through new policies if it is irrespective of European discussions.”

Possible opportunities could arise for crypto companies as a result of Brexit

And there could be other positives for crypto companies that come about as a result of Brexit–Ollie Smith sees the split as a possible opportunity for increased usage of cryptocurrency as a method of cross-border finance: “as a consequence, customers could increasingly use [cryptocurrency] to move money internationally, in place of the traditional banking system,” he explained.

 “Therefore, instead of harming crypto trading Brexit could actually create a crypto-boom.

”Vlad Miller also pointed out the fact that, according to the Bank of England, “Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are now freely used in the UK, as they do not pose a significant risk to the monetary or financial stability of the United Kingdom.”




Ollie Smith, chief executive officer of Card Accounts, a UK-based payment service reviewing company.Therefore, “a flexible stance on cryptocurrency regulation creates an excellent environment for the development of blockchain and cryptocurrencies in the UK.

”As such, “Britain’s exit from the EU could allow a small island country to become even more flexible in terms of regulating these new technologies and promoting innovation.

”“Since the UK government will lose a significant amount of tax revenue from the traditional banking sector due to the move of financial institutions to continental Europe, it is possible that the government will want to make more efforts to develop technologies, in particular, cryptocurrency and blockchain.”

A dubious future

However, where there is opportunity, there is risk–just as the UK government may take a more flexible approach toward regulating crypto, it could crack down on the industry.

Ray Walsh, digital technology and privacy expert at ProPrivacy, told Finance Magnates that this uncertainty may eventually cause some UK-based startups to move their headquarters abroad.




Ray Walsh, digital technology and privacy expert at ProPrivacy.“The loss of innovative crypto startups currently based in London would be a massively negative outcome for the UK’s tech sector–which ought to be striving to hold on to talent and strengthen its position as a forward-thinking financial capital,” Walsh said.

“The City of London is the UK’s primary business district, and has traditionally been the world’s leading financial hub; far outweighing Wall Street in importance. However, unless the UK’s financial nerve center can hold on to innovative FinTech startups, it runs the risk of slowly beginning to lose its status.”

Will Brexit cause crypto to be seen as a risk-off asset in the UK and the EU?

For many members of the crypto community, however, whether Brexit is good or bad for crypto companies is beside the point–it’s the effect on the markets themselves that crypto traders and investors are eagerly anticipating.

Why? A number of analysts agree that the de-stabilizing effect that Brexit could have on both the British pound and the euro could bring more money into crypto.

Vlad Miller explained that “investors and funds can switch to cryptocurrencies, as we have already seen more than once on the example of Venezuela, Turkey and China, experiencing economic changes.

Cryptocurrency is similar to gold in terms of protection against economic crisis, and during a period of financial uncertainty, the population turns to such assets.

”According to some, this has already begun to happen–on December 19th of last year, Xen Baynham-Herd — executive vice president of product at Blockchain — told Cointelegraph that with Brexit looming, the exchange has seen a record number of first-time deposits from U.K. users.

“Bitcoin, despite being virtual, is the world’s hardest asset,” he said. “Throughout history, savvy investors have relied on hard assets (like gold) to manage risk and protect long-term value in the face of instability and economic downturns.”

What are your predictions for crypto as Brexit continues to approach? How has your company been preparing for Brexit? Let us know in the comments below on Financemagnates here: https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/countdown-to-brexit-how-uk-crypto-companies-are-preparing/

Central banks in Asia and Europe are in the final stages of launching digital currencies for future payment systems and cross-border transactions, according to a new report from accounting firm KPMG.

And governments around the world see the launch of these blockchain-based central bank digital currencies (CBDC) as something that could one day give them a competitive advantage in global trade.

“In 2020, we at KPMG expect to assist regional and central banks in the development of well-defined technology frameworks that can anchor private-sector initiatives,” Arun Ghosh, U.S.

Blockchain Leader at KPMG, said in a blog post.Among other banking entitires, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shown support for fiat-backed cryptocurrencies, saying they can reduce the reliance on government-issued money, "and unlike bank transfers, crypto asset transactions can be cleared and settled quickly without an intermediary,” Dong He, deputy director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, wrote in a post for the IMF.

“The advantages are especially apparent in cross-border payments, which are costly, cumbersome, and opaque," He said. "New services using distributed ledger technology and crypto assets have slashed the time it takes for cross-border payments to reach their destination from days to seconds by bypassing correspondent banking networks.

”In a blog post, the IMF said today’s fiat currencies are in flux “and innovation will transform the landscape of banking and money.”Other countries are already looking to innovate in ways that given them an advantage.

[ Further reading: Blockchain: The complete guide ]

China is reportedly close to releasing a national cryptocurrency that, because of greater efficiencies, could challenge the U.S. dollar as the de facto currency for international trade. Other smaller countries such as Sweden are planning their own state-sponsored cryptocurrency.

(Sweden’s would be called the e-Krona.) And the Bank of England has been researching cryptocurrency since 2015. Even though theit does not currently plan to issue a cryptocurrency linked to Pound sterling, it has published extensive research on the monetary policy and financial system implications of issuing CDBCs.

“If a central bank issued a digital currency, then everyone (including businesses, households and financial institutions other than banks) could store value and make payments in electronic central bank money,” the Bank of England said in a research paper.

“While this may seem like a small change, it could have wide-ranging implications for monetary policy and financial stability.

”Regardless of any movement by central banks, Ghosh said, fiat-based ‘stablecoins’ are already being issued by the private sector to support enhanced value exchange and settlement within organizations and across banking networks.

For example, JP Morgan Chase announced last year it had developed what was seen at the time as the first cryptocurrency backed by a major bank – a move that could legitimize blockchain as a vehicle for fiat cryptocurrencies. 

JPM Coin, as the bank calls its new digital money, is considered fiat currency because it's backed by U.S. dollars in accounts designated at JPMorgan Chase N.A.Each JPM Coin is equal in value to one U.S. dollar.

Wells Fargo has also announced it will pilot its own cryptocurrency to enable near real-time money movement and cut out settlement middlemen, thus reducing fees.

And the Reserve Bank of Australia has conducted pilots with Ethereum-based cryptocurrency in the hope it could be used by third parties for cross-border payments. So far, the bank has not found a significant case for its use in light of Australia’s relatively stable banking system, according to a Senate inquiry into the matter last month.

“The upside for businesses and consumers will trickle down through adoption..., Ghosh said, nothing that the new systems could result in "near instantaneous value settlement" with "enhanced cash flow realization and/or liquidity of certain positions.

" Blockchain is being piloted by financial services institutions in five primary areas: for clearance and settlement, trade finance, cross-border payments, insurance claims processing and anti-money laundering (AML) and know your customer (KYC) efforts.

For cross-border transactions, stablecoin could cut settlement times from days to minutes by eliminating the need for private organizations such as Depository Trust and Clearance Corp. (DTCC) in the U.S. and Euroclear in the European Union. The DTCC and Euroclear now handle securities settlements.

Blockchain-based systems could also streamline the process of buying and selling  stocks and bonds. Those transactions can take up to three days, with longer delays  of up to 10 days not uncommon, according to Bruce Fenton, founder and managing director of Atlantic Financial and a board member of the Bitcoin Foundation.

"The challenge with securities now is you need a trusted third party to say what's true," Fenton said. "It's not your broker. It's not Merrill Lynch or Fidelity and it's not the issuer either; Apple has no clue who their shareholders are, either.

The function is performed by these large centralized groups because the brokers don't necessarily trust each other; they're dealing with their competitors.

"The problem with relying on central settlement organizations is that transactions can get bottlenecked through the use of a single ledger, such as VisaNet or SWIFT, he said. With blockchain, trust becomes moot since digital tokens representing securities or money are inextricably linked to the funds or securities – and transfers can be done  in hours, Fenton said.

Given those efficiencies, more than a half dozen universities are already working on developing a payment system to rival today’s conventional clearance and settlement networks.

In addition to the scaled adoption of cryptoassets now being driven by the public sector, Ghosh sees four other crypto trends likely to emerge over the next year or so as business executives apply “an unprecedented level of innovation ... driving new revenue models by leveraging blockchain and tokenized assets.”Those trends include:

• Advances in cryptoasset custody technology, or how digital assets are owned, stored, secured, transferred and accessed in a decentralized environment.

• A shift from private-permissioned to interoperable blockchain implementations. With many private blockchain implementations coming to fruition, the next step is interoperability.

• More success when scaling the technology with a converged artificial intelligence (AI) framework – and better results when initializing their AI investments.

• The convergence of AI, blockchain and the Internet of Things (IoT) to help manage climate change.
• 
  

About that last prediction, Ghosh said: “Decentralized, transparent data models enabled by blockchain, which houses data transferred via IoT that is measurable using advanced analytic techniques, can be visible to a vast number of countries and regulators that are jointly monitoring and reporting on carbon emissions, rising sea levels and the remediation of toxic waste, among other applications."

Related: 

• Blockchain
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• Emerging Technology
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• Financial Services Industry
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• Government IT
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• Cloud Computing
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• Artificial Intelligence
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• Internet of Things

Senior Reporter Lucas Mearian covers financial services IT (including blockchain), healthcare IT and enterprise mobile issues (including mobility management, security, hardware and apps).